Bitcoin price has been hesitantly testing the crucial $10,000 support only to face more buying activity from the bulls. With traditional and crypto markets bleeding heavily, will the support now finally cave to take BTC/USD pair below the $10,000 level.
The crypto king has survived a tumultuous weekend and is barely holding the $10,200 mark. Weekend charts are dominated by downwick candles on hourly charts. Other cryptocurrencies aren’t performing so well either. Ether posted a low of $300 after sliding down consistently for the past few days. Many crypto investors are worried about the burgeoning DeFi market that is fast approaching the unfortunate bubble stage. But what does all this mean for Bitcoin price? Let’s find out.
Bitcoin price has entered an unknown phase
Altcoin rally is already reaching stratospheric levels and prices are not justifying the ground realities of the projects. Even though it was a typical crypto market week with all its volatility, the market action has taken many traders by surprise. In what could be the start of cold crypto winter, investors are wondering whether Bitcoin price can provide some solace.
The Bitcoin price is consolidating around $10,000 level
Bitcoin price has dropped almost 21 percent in the past two weeks. BTC/USD pair posted a low of $9,850 on 5 September only to bounce back slightly and trade above the $10,200 level. The volatile price action has created what many investors call the ‘Bart’ pattern.
Conventionally, a Bart pattern signifies a ‘pump-and-dump’ period where price rises and falls repeatedly only to trade around the mean. What’s worrying is that when the king of cryptocurrencies makes such an indecisive pattern, other crypto-assets also look vulnerable. The Bart pattern accompanied by large volumes has the potential to shake the entire altcoin space.
Bitcoin price posted a high of $12,450 which can be considered a top in Bart pattern. Identifying the bottom is crucial to know the start of the next bull rally.
The CME gap holds the key
Since Bitcoin is available for trading 24/7, the CME gap provides an interesting area of study. CME is closed for one hour daily which necessitates that trading clearances be done the next day. Orders which were placed when CME was closed can be unfilled for some time thus creating a gap.
The CME gap intervals can sometimes create a gap of $50 in the Bitcoin price. In case the price falls and touches the price bracket of unfilled orders, they can get filled during the price drop. However, the Bitcoin price has dropped sharply in the past few days.
The gap observed on 24 July stands at around $9,665, which is around $200 shy of the recent low posted by the BTC/USD pair. If there are significant orders pending in the $9,665 region, the wick can certainly move lower.
Weekly Fibonacci brings $7,000 in picture
The weekly 61.8 Fibonacci retracement mark stands at $7,033. This is a worrying prospect for bulls as the pullback can wipe out long-term bull positions. Most traders and investors entered the current market around $7,000 levels which means they will liquidate their positions and book profits in case the current fall exaggerates.
The prospect of touching the 61.8 percent retracement is quite frightening. However, there will be many bull entry points along this downward spiral that can reverse the downtrend. The fall to $7,000 would bring the March lows into the picture. Not to forget, the institutional investors are sitting on the fence waiting for the right moment to start large-scale buying.
Bears are getting stronger
If CME gap support at $9,600 doesn’t hold, the correction can run deeper. Unfortunately, such a scenario can bring the 61.8 percent Fibonacci support into play. That means the correction can go all the way up to $7,100. Anything south would mean the bull market for this year is over.
BitMex shows that Bitcoin futures are also not painting a rosy picture. The open interest has reached 800 million which is about the same as two weeks ago when Bitcoin price started dropping.
How can bulls make a comeback
The recent drop isn’t as dreadful as it looks. The $12,500 resistance is formidable and requires large-scale collective bull effort. The CME gap is partially filled as the price touched $9,850. The bounce back from $9,850 was swift which means bulls are eyeing buying opportunities. Trader AlanMasters also shares the same sentiment but initially, Bitcoin price has the potential to hit $9,081.
The macro picture still favors Bitcoin. The weekly trend line is still firmly in the bull territory and small corrections are a healthy part of long-term bulls trajectories. Technically, the Bitcoin price can go as low as $8,500 and still maintain a bullish stance in the macro realm. An abrupt fall can weed out the sellers and prompt a quick buying interest around the $8,600 level.
Another way to understand the present retracing is through Bitcoin halving. The ‘re-accumulation’ that occurs after each halving results in price consolidation. First, the price breaks up, and then it retraces to trade within a range. Retests are also part of the stage when the price breaks upwards.
As for now, the $10,000 support level is holding strong. Despite the shaking ground underneath, the BTC/USD pair will start the week above the $10,000 slab.