In the last two weeks, Ether (ETH) price increased by 75% as the price rallied from $222 to $400. Many investors believe Ether’s momentum might be lifting the entire market and might be pushing Bitcoin (BTC) upwards.
Three factors were observed to trigger the strong Ether rally, namely: DeFi, ETH 2.0, and the current prolonged rally taking place in the altcoin market.
The “fat protocol thesis”
It is everything against the “Fat Protocol Thesis” forwarded by Joel Monegro in August 2016. He stated that the value of a smart contracting protocol will grow at a faster pace than the value of applications built on it.
Disapproved, the development will bring into question talks about Ethereum security and undoubtedly, the Economic Abstraction question. This stems from the parasitic nature of Ethereum-based dApps. Though useful and driving adoption, they technically don’t draw value to ETH but rather to their respective tokens.
Ethereum likely to outperform Bitcoin because of DeFi
In Pal’s assessment, there is a strong likelihood of ETH outperforming Bitcoin in the long-term. He zeros in on DeFi, stating that the growth of this ecosystem will pump the Ethereum price in the next bull cycle. In a newsletter, he notes:
“I am getting increasingly bullish on Ethereum. ETH is the silver to Bitcoin’s gold. It has more industry uses and less store of value uses… ETH is all about adoption rates and usage. Basically, it’s all down to something called DeFi.”
And the ETH/BTC cross looks like ETH is going to be the outperformed initially… pic.twitter.com/6E9HKzOhZj
— Raoul Pal (@RaoulGMI) July 8, 2020
Ethereum price analysis
It remains to be seen whether the confluence of ETH 2.0, profit-taking rallies, and DeFi growth could push Ether price to higher resistance areas. For now, the sentiment around the altcoin generally remains positive in the medium-term. Previously, the Ethereum price is stable. There are no meaningful gains or losses against both Bitcoin and the USD.
The Ethereum price is oscillating within a tight trade with support limits at $230. Since ETH prices are above the middle BB (the 20-day moving average) and inside the bullish candlesticks of July 6 and 9, buyers have a chance. This is from an effort versus results point of view supportive that point at bulls.
A break above $250 means the current consolidation was an accumulation. In that case, there will be a strong likelihood of the Ethereum price soaring to $280 or better in days ahead. Ideally, the sharp break above $250 ought to be at the back of high trading volumes.
If trading volumes exceed those of the anchor bar (July 6, 2020), ETH prices may retest $280. The opposite is true if ETH bears reverse gains made in the last week of trading. In that eventuality, immediate targets stand at $200 and $180.
Technical chart courtesy of Trading View
Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. Opinions expressed here are those of the author and not the view of the publication.