Bitcoin ETF approval nears: Experts predict 95% chance of success


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  • Bitcoin ETF approval anticipation is high; experts predict a 95% chance on January 10.
  • Caution persists amid optimism that SEC rejection could affect young investors.
  • Biden administration intervention is possible if ETF is denied, and it may reshape crypto regulation.

As the crypto world holds its breath, anticipation for the potential approval of a Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) has reached unprecedented levels. 

With the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) now accepting 19b-4 forms from exchanges and issuers, experts are increasingly confident that the long-awaited ETF may finally get the green light. While some caution against a possible “sell-the-news” event, the general sentiment remains optimistic.

Experts predict a 95% chance of approval

The excitement surrounding the potential Bitcoin ETF approval has been building up as key players in the race for approval successfully navigated one of the final steps in the SEC approval process. 

The anticipation has peaked ahead of the SEC’s decision, scheduled for January 10, which could potentially mark a significant turning point for the cryptocurrency market.

Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart, who initially predicted a 90% chance of Bitcoin Spot ETF approval by January, has increased his estimate to an impressive 95%. 

This growing confidence suggests that the proposals are less likely to face further delays, sparking hope among investors and enthusiasts alike.

A cautionary note amidst the optimism

While the prevailing sentiment is overwhelmingly positive, some cautionary voices within the crypto community exist. These individuals warn of a potential “sell-the-news” event, citing recent reactions in the altcoin market. Leading cryptocurrencies such as Cardano, Avalanche, and Ethereum experienced drops of up to 12% after recent announcements.

However, James Seyffart remains resolutely optimistic, emphasizing the evolving dynamics of the crypto market and the increasing interest from institutional and retail investors. The potential approval of a Bitcoin ETF is seen as a major milestone in legitimizing and mainstreaming cryptocurrencies.

Despite the prevailing optimism, there is still a possibility that the SEC might choose to postpone its decision or, even worse, reject the Bitcoin ETF proposals. In such a scenario, market experts are speculating on the potential consequences.

One significant concern is the impact on younger investors, particularly from Generation Z, who have shown a growing interest in cryptocurrencies. A rejection by the SEC could expose them to significant challenges regarding their investments and their perception of the regulatory environment.

Moreover, a rejection could lead to criticism and backlash against the SEC, with various legal avenues being explored to challenge the decision. This could result in a protracted legal battle and further uncertainty in the cryptocurrency market.

Possible Biden administration intervention

In the event of a rejection, there is also speculation about the possible intervention of the Biden administration, despite their current stance on crypto regulation. Such intervention could create additional obstacles for the SEC and complicate their efforts to impede the progress of the Bitcoin ETF scheduled for the following week.

The involvement of the Biden administration could potentially lead to reconsidering the regulatory framework surrounding cryptocurrencies, adding more complexity to an already convoluted landscape.

As the SEC’s decision day approaches, the entire cryptocurrency market is on edge. This decision could have far-reaching implications, shaping the market’s trajectory for the year’s first half. 

Investors and enthusiasts are eagerly awaiting January 10 to see whether the SEC will finally give the green light to a Bitcoin ETF, marking a significant milestone in the evolution of the cryptocurrency industry.

Disclaimer: The information provided is not trading advice. Cryptopolitan.com holds no liability for any investments made based on the information provided on this page. We strongly recommend independent research and/or consultation with a qualified professional before making any investment decision.

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James Kinoti

A crypto enthusiast, James finds pleasure in sharing knowledge on fintech, cryptocurrency as well as blockchain and frontier technologies. The latest innovations in the crypto industry, crypto gaming, AI, blockchain technology, and other technologies are his preoccupation. His mission: be on track with transformative applications in various industries.

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