Yesterday, the crypto market saw a big drop, with its total value falling by 2.75% to $1.90 trillion. During this dip, Bitcoin’s share of the market slightly grew by 0.25%, reaching 50.77%. This increase in Bitcoin’s share during a market downturn suggests deeper issues that need a closer look. When we examine why Bitcoin’s price fell, we uncover a range of reasons, from a lack of excitement from everyday buyers to technical signs that suggest prices might drop even more. Let’s unpack.
Retail Investors Hold Back
Looking closely at Bitcoin’s recent downturn, it’s clear there’s a big lack of new excitement in the Bitcoin market. A quick look at Google Trends shows that people aren’t searching for Bitcoin as much, even though its value has jumped 109% over the past year. This cool interest from everyday buyers is confirmed by Coinbase’s latest financial report, which shows that buying and selling by these small investors have slowed down, especially in the last part of 2023. The once-strong enthusiasm that made up more than 90% of Coinbase’s income has now shrunk to just under half, showing that individual investors are being very careful.
Also, data from Santiment, a company that analyzes the market, supports this view, showing a short increase in interest in Bitcoin when the SEC approved 11 ETFs but no lasting new excitement. This makes us wonder, why are investors hesitant?
A Pre-Bitcoin Halving Retrace on the Horizon
The situation gets more interesting as we look into the patterns that happen around Bitcoin’s halving events. Experts and enthusiasts are starting to talk about the beginning of a pre-halving phase, a repeating pattern that usually leads to big changes in the market. Experienced traders point out that Bitcoin is following a path that’s been seen before in the halvings of 2016 and 2020, suggesting what might happen next.
This expected drop before the halving, shown by a 38% and 20% fall in previous cycles, isn’t just guesswork but is based on how the market usually moves. The current trend, marked by a negative change in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), adds to the belief that a correction is coming. This change, which usually signals a possible drop, means that despite recent increases, the push behind Bitcoin’s rise might not last.
As Bitcoin approaches important price levels, the conversation turns to when and how much the price might fall back. With $52,000 acting as a tough barrier, the mood in the market is a mix of careful hope and worry. Long-time market observers are still bullish, comparing this to past increases and highlighting the repeating nature of Bitcoin’s price changes.
