It’s Nvidia Day: Watch the biggest company on earth report earnings live at the bell

Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) heads into Wednesday’s after-hours report with a problem most companies would happily take: it has performed so well that simply delivering another strong quarter is no longer enough.

Despite clearing or beating Wall Street’s key markers of earnings, sales, and guidance for the past four quarters in a row, shares of the world’s biggest company ended down the next day after each report.

The one and only weakness of this run was the second quarter from last year, where Nvidia’s forecast met the consensus estimates rather than topping them.

That pattern of results has changed how analysts perceive the forecasts of the firm. To put it simply, a positive-looking estimate can fall short despite being favorable if Wall Street believes the actual number will be even better in the end.

That task is even harder to perform because Nvidia is responsible for a large portion of the AI investment boom all over the globe right now. The firm is not only the leading provider of the needed hardware but plays an increasing financial role in the whole ecosystem as well.

For the second quarter, analysts tracked by FactSet (NYSE: FDS) are looking for $2.09 a share in earnings and $92.2 billion in revenue. Cantor Fitzgerald said the market is currently penciling in $103.7 billion of sales for the third quarter.

That next-quarter number could matter more than almost anything else Nvidia says. Kevin Cassidy of Rosenblatt Securities said a forecast above $105 billion would be enough to catch investors’ attention, while $110 billion would land as an exceptionally strong result.

Kevin also said another thing could help if the operating numbers fail to shock Wall Street: a clear commitment to send 50% of free cash flow back to shareholders through stock repurchases and a larger dividend.