Federal Reserve officials pledge to hike interest rates if inflation stays above target

According to Federal Reserve minutes released on Wednesday, officials are predicting that interest rates will go higher if inflation refuses to fall back to the Fed’s 2% target, after fresh data showed prices rising again and markets started treating another hike as a real risk.

As Cryptopolitan previously reported, the Fed kept its target range for the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75% on April 30.

But pressure came from almost every corner of the economy. The Middle East conflict pushed oil prices higher, lifted near-term inflation expectations, hit shipping costs, raised airfares, and caused price jumps in fertilizer and other commodities.

Fed officials keep rates high as inflation data gets worse

Officials said inflation had gone up again and stayed above target, and core inflation also stayed too high.

Several officials tied the goods-price pressure to tariffs, while others said fuel costs were feeding into shipping and plane tickets. Some also pointed to information technology and software prices, though a few said software costs may not be a good guide for future inflation.

“Effective April 30, 2026, the Federal Open Market Committee directs the Desk to undertake open market operations as necessary to maintain the federal funds rate in a target range of 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent,” said the Fed.

Markets were not betting hard on cuts anymore. Options pricing showed about a 30% chance of a rate hike by the first quarter of 2027. The Desk survey still showed two 25 basis point cuts over the next year, but traders pushed them later, into the third or fourth quarter of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027.

“Conduct standing overnight repurchase agreement operations at a rate of 3.75 percent.”

The labor market seemed stable, with no signs of overheating. The unemployment rate was at 4.3 percent in March and had been stable for a while, since mid-2025.

The Fed commented on an increase in employment in March despite its decline during February due to a strike in the health-care industry and unusually cold weather. Wages increased by 3.5 percent compared to the same month of the previous year; however, that figure was still 0.7 percentage point less than last year.

Fed officials renew liquidity tools as new chair Warsh targets the balance sheet

On the other hand, the real GDP performance improved in Q1 because of the reduced effects of the government shutdown. Trade had a negative impact since imports were growing faster than exports, driven by high-technology products. The rate of growth in private domestic final purchases, which include both consumer expenditures and private investment, was slightly better compared to its average annual rate.

Inflation levels in foreign countries were close to target levels, but in March data showed rising inflation rates due to rising energy prices, as per the Federal Reserve. Foreign central banks maintained their policy stances. According to the Fed, standing overnight reverse repurchase agreements operations would take place at an offering rate of 3.5 percent with a cap of $160 billion daily per counterparty.

Money markets stayed calm, as the effective federal funds rate sat 1 basis point below the interest on reserve balances rate. Repo rates stayed close to that same level, with quarter-end and the April tax date did not cause major funding stress. The overnight reverse repo facility saw little use. Standing repo activity was mostly limited to April 15, when tax payments pulled reserves lower.

The Fed renewed dollar and foreign currency swap lines with the Bank of Canada, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, and Swiss National Bank. It also renewed reciprocal currency deals with the Bank of Canada and Bank of Mexico under the North American Framework Agreement of 1994. The Committee approved the Desk’s domestic transactions. There were no foreign currency interventions.

“Roll over at auction all principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasury securities. Reinvest all principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of agency securities into Treasury bills.”

Incoming Federal Reserve chief Kevin Warsh wants a smaller bond portfolio, but that plan may hit limits fast. The Fed’s assets rose from about $800 billion before the 2008 crisis to almost $9 trillion in 2022, then fell to $6.7 trillion after three years of runoff.

The balance sheet started growing again after funding stress appeared last December. Kevin said:

“As it’s grown its balance sheet, grown its imprimatur on the economy, those with financial assets have benefited. If we were to cut rates, a broader number of people will benefit from it, versus quantitative easing, which tends to move through financial assets first.”