The Bank of England (BoE) has warned that escalating trade barriers are a ticking time bomb for the global economy. The central bank’s latest financial stability report didn’t hold back, detailing how higher restrictions on international trade are shaking up economic growth and creating massive uncertainty around inflation.
It’s a cocktail of risks that’s already affecting financial markets, with borrowing costs creeping higher for both businesses and households. The message from Threadneedle Street is pretty much: ‘Brace yourselves.’
But the fallout doesn’t stop there. The BoE pointed to a growing breakdown in international financial cooperation, which could seriously destabilize the system’s ability to absorb shocks. Translation: if global regulators can’t get their act together, future crises could hit much harder than they need to.
And while the BoE didn’t name names, the timing of this report—just days after President Donald Trump issued his very first trade threats—feels far from accidental.
The UK’s fragile spot in a shaky world
BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, ever the diplomat, dodged questions about the direct impact of Trump’s win. Instead, he kept the focus broad, saying, “We are seeing increased risk of global fragmentation. But I would say this: there are quite a lot of causes of that, and I don’t think it’s right to pin it on one particular event.”
Still, the risks for the UK are uniquely worrying. As an economy that thrives on openness and global trade, Britain’s financial system is wide open to shocks from outside. The BoE acknowledged that households and banks are in decent shape for now, but it flagged serious vulnerabilities.
The report highlighted public debt levels worldwide as a major concern, along with the unpredictable nature of financial markets. “Uncertainty around, and risks to, the outlook have increased,” the BoE said.
Meanwhile, new Finance Minister Rachel Reeves has accused the central bank of stifling growth by being too heavy-handed with regulations. Bailey pushed back, saying, “Put simply, there is not a trade-off between financial stability and growth. This is a fundamental point.”
But he admitted that regulators have some wiggle room in how rules are applied. Case in point: the BoE will now conduct full stress tests on banks every two years instead of annually, a move Bailey says will help make the financial sector more competitive.
Volatile markets and the hedge fund wild card
The report also pulled no punches about financial markets, calling them “vulnerable to a sharp correction.” Rising trade barriers, growth risks, and inflation jitters are creating the perfect storm. If markets go into a tailspin, borrowing costs could skyrocket, hitting UK businesses and households where it hurts most.
And then there’s the wildcard: hedge funds and other non-bank financial institutions. These players might look like big shots on paper, but the BoE isn’t buying it. Hedge funds, the report warned, could face a sudden shock that forces them into a fire sale of assets like British corporate bonds.
Such a move could spread chaos through financial markets, further cranking up borrowing costs. The BoE is watching these risks closely, but the reality is that non-banks operate outside its traditional sphere of control.
On the brighter side, UK banks are holding up well. They’re well-capitalized and flush with liquidity, passing the BoE’s resilience tests with flying colors. But even here, the central bank is easing up. Starting in 2025, those stress tests will shift to a biennial schedule, freeing up resources to focus on other risks.
During off years, the BoE will conduct less intensive desk-based reviews as needed. The central bank is keeping its countercyclical capital buffer steady at 2%.
This so-called “rainy day fund” is meant to help banks weather tough times. But with so many unknowns on the horizon—fragmenting global ties, shaky markets, and towering public debt—the BoE is clearly keeping its options open.
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