Bitcoin’s price is bouncing back, but there’s a catch. After a brief surge, the rally seems to be hitting a wall. A massive $1 billion in USDT was yanked from exchanges, the biggest Tether outflow since May.
According to IntoTheBlock, these big withdrawals often signal a change in market mood, especially when they hit this hard. Some people think the money is being pulled for DeFi plays, chasing higher yields outside the usual exchanges.
But history tells us that when these massive outflows happen, Bitcoin often stumbles not long after.
Market signals are mixed
At the current price, around $59,111, a whopping 82% of Bitcoin holders are sitting on profits. Not too shabby. But there’s another side to that coin—13% of holders are in the red, and 4% are just breaking even.
Now, let’s talk about who’s holding all that Bitcoin. Large holders, the so-called “whales,” only control about 12% of the total supply. That’s not as concentrated as you might expect, which is usually a good thing for market stability.
It means Bitcoin isn’t too dependent on a few big players, but it also means there’s a lot of smaller holders who might panic sell.
Looking at transaction volumes, over $86.51 billion worth of Bitcoin transactions above $100K went down in the last week. That’s a lot of action, likely driven by institutional investors or whales moving serious amounts of Bitcoin.
One of the key metrics to watch is exchange netflows, which totaled $109.61 million over the past week. Positive netflows usually hint that Bitcoin is being moved onto exchanges, possibly setting up for the sell-off.
Meanwhile, negative netflows could mean people are holding onto their Bitcoin, expecting the price to climb.
The overall sentiment is “Mostly Bullish,” but there are some warning signs in there. Out of seven signals, one is bearish, three are neutral, and three are bullish.
On the on-chain side, net network growth is basically flat at 0.15%. New users aren’t flooding in, but they’re not bailing either. The “In the Money” signal is solidly bullish at 0.79%, showing a lot of holders are in profit. That’s keeping the market mood bullish, but it’s also a double-edged sword.
Derivatives market shows caution
Over on the exchanges, the signals are leaning bullish. The “Smart Price” metric is up 0.04%, and the “Bid-Ask Volume Imbalance” is at 5.09%. But here’s where it gets tricky—the derivatives market is showing signs of caution.
The futures market momentum is slightly bearish at -0.5%. This means that traders in the futures market are starting to hedge their bets, maybe expecting a pullback.
Now, let’s zoom in on the derivatives market. The total trading volume in Bitcoin derivatives jumped by 6.68%, hitting $62.76 billion. That’s a lot of action, and it usually signals that the traders are expecting more volatility ahead.
Whether it’s good or bad volatility remains to be seen. Open interest barely budged, dropping just 0.03% to $29.46 billion. The real action, though, is in the options market. Options volume skyrocketed by 44.98%, reaching $1.87 billion.
Options open interest also climbed by 1.89% to $21.36 billion, another sign that traders are getting ready for something big. Whether it’s up or down, nobody’s sitting this one out.
