Strategy (MSTR) trades at over $400 ahead of quarterly report

Strategy (MSTR) traded at its highest level for the year, crossing the $400 threshold for the first time since Q3, 2024. The stock rallied ahead of the quarterly report, expected after the markets close on May 1. 

Strategy (MSTR) was among the most actively traded stocks on May 1, ahead of the company’s quarterly results call. MSTR expanded in the past few days but broke above the $400 range for the first time in 2025. 

MSTR rose by 33.75% in the year to date, trading at $400.72. The shares briefly peaked at $401.10. In April, MSTR had its biggest gain since November 2024, regaining the hype from the previous BTC bull rally. Michael Saylor, executive chairman of Strategy, noted that MSTR has so far outperformed alongside BTC. 

$MSTR is now up more than 3000% since adopting the Bitcoin Standard. pic.twitter.com/ZqBKMHG999

— Michael Saylor (@saylor) May 1, 2025

The shares saw $2B of volumes traded in 90 minutes soon after the US market opening bell. The shares added 5.52% in the early morning hours, surpassing other tech stocks. The shares extended their momentum from April, when MSTR added over 70% to its price, with no pullbacks for the past three weeks.

The performance of MSTR surpassed the net gains of BTC for the year to date. The MSTR shares expanded as Strategy kept announcing weekly BTC purchases, but the last day led to an even stronger rally. MSTR outperformed tech stocks, which were pressured by the US trade war talks. 

The MSTR rally coincided with the ongoing recovery of BTC, up to $97,002.72. The leading coin expects to regain the $100,000 level soon, further boosting the exposure of MSTR. Strategy expanded its reserves to 2.63% of the BTC supply, becoming one of the largest single holders. The recent MSTR rally is also reviving the dilemma of whether owning MSTR is better compared to holding a self-custodied BTC.

Can MSTR go through a short squeeze?

MSTR is still far from its 12-month peak of $542.99. The recent rally is seen as either a short-term reaction to the earnings report or a potential short squeeze based on data about shorted MSTR shares and bets against Strategy. 

In the past, MSTR has shown limited signs of a short squeeze, leading to rallies above the $400 level. However, traders warned that MSTR is not likely to repeat the scenario of GameStop and rely on irrational holding. 

One mechanism with the effect of a short squeeze is the capital allocated to MSTY. The ticker represents an ETF that shorts MSTR. 

MSTR is setup for a squeeze because billions of dollars of capital are unknowingly short it for "yield" (MSTY).

— Joe Burnett, MSBA (@IIICapital) May 1, 2025

Additionally, traders shorted derivative tickers MSTU and MSTX, also tied to the performance of MSTR. If MSTR continues the rally, some of those traders may have to close or cover their positions. Some of the short positions have been closed, but other holders may face ongoing losses. Previously, Saylor himself called for attempts at shorting MSTR to show confidence in the direction of the shares and the long-term potential of BTC.

The other possible scenario for MSTR is that the rally will stall after the quarterly results come in, dampening the hype. Some of the expectations see MSTR crashing back under $350 after the earnings call. 

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