Standard Chartered, the British multinational bank, has predicted that the value of Bitcoin could reach $100,000 by the end of 2024. The bank’s head of digital assets research, Geoff Kendrick, said that the “crypto winter” was over.
He added that the digital asset could benefit from several factors, including the recent turbulence in the banking sector, the stabilization of risk assets as the US Federal Reserve ends its rate-hiking cycle, and improved crypto mining profitability.
Kendrick believes that while sources of uncertainty remain, the pathway to the $100,000 level is becoming clearer.
Bitcoin’s rocky history
Bitcoin has had a rocky history, with several peaks and troughs. However, it has enjoyed a resurgence in 2023, rising above $30,000 in April for the first time in ten months.
This recovery has come after the crypto sector suffered losses of trillions of dollars in 2022, as central banks hiked interest rates, and several crypto firms went bankrupt.
Despite this, predictions of sky-high valuations for Bitcoin have been commonplace during its past rallies. A Citi analyst said in November 2020 that Bitcoin could climb as high as $318,000 by the end of 2022. It closed last year down about 65% at $16,500.
Bitcoin’s value has been affected by several factors in recent months. The digital asset is trading at around $27,300, down over 10% in the past week.
The decline in BTC erased Bitcoin’s early April gains above $30,000, moving below the previous month’s closing value of around $28,500.
Other leading cryptocurrencies also slipped over the past week, with the top 10 biggest cryptocurrencies by market cap, barring stablecoins, down double digits on the week.
A strengthening US dollar drove the downturn, with the American central bank expected to raise the benchmark interest rate by another quarter basis point in the upcoming May policy rate meeting.
Bitcoin and Gold
In recent months, Bitcoin has had a stronger correlation with gold than with stock market indices, according to data from Valkyrie Fund. This correlation has grown stronger after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, which triggered fears about banking failures.
Another factor reportedly brewing in the American economy is the debt ceiling crisis. The US Treasury holds historic amounts of debt, and the current debt exceeds the debt limit of $31.4 trillion, with around $31.46 trillion taken in loans already.
While several factors affect Bitcoin’s value, many investors are optimistic about the future of the digital asset. A repeating price fractal hints that the recent retracement could set the stage for a massive cryptocurrency bull run.
The conclusion of hash rate wars in 2018 saw Bitcoin’s price crash from roughly $6,000 to $3,000. This sudden drop formed a local bottom for BTC, which was followed by 107 days of consolidation.
This consolidation ended on April 1, when Bitcoin price shot up and formed a bullish divergence on the daily chart. The setup was followed by a 173% upswing in the next two months, which pushed BTC to form a local top at $13,880.
In 2023, a similar setup has formed, indicating that the ongoing coiling up will likely lead to a similar outlook. While a 173% upswing is unlikely, investors can expect Bitcoin price to push deeper into the weekly Bearish Breaker area, extending from $29,247 to $41,273.