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Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says final OBBB terms will reinforce U.S. investment leadership

In this post:

  • Scott Bessent says the final text of OBBB will ensure that the U.S. remains the most investable country globally.
  • Bessent revealed that Trump is creating a fair playing field for trade and tax by getting foreign governments to the table.
  • The Council of Economic Advisors expects the bill to raise investments by up to 7.5%.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent revealed on Wednesday that there’s a lot of misinformation about Section 899 in the One Big Beautiful Bill. He said the final text of OBBB will ensure that the U.S. continues to be the most investable country in the world while undergoing Biden’s bad tax policies.

Bessent reiterated that the U.S. has been the victim of unfair trade practices, extraterritorial taxes, non-tariff barriers, and tariffs for too long. He also acknowledged that U.S. President Donald Trump is creating a fair playing field for trade and tax, getting foreign governments to the table, and putting American businesses first.

Section 899 to ensure growth in the U.S.

Section 899 in the OBBB aims to introduce retaliatory tax measures against entities from nations with tariffs, such as the Digital Service Taxes and the OECD’s global minimum tax rules. If the legislation is passed into law, it could impact investors from the European Union, the UK, Canada, Australia, and Switzerland, among others.

The White House Council of Economic Advisors (CEA) argued that the bill would produce significant economic growth. The entity projects the legislation would increase gross domestic product by up to 3.5%, raise investment by up to 7.5%, and raise wages by up to $11,600 per worker. CEA also believes that the OBBB would boost the U.S. economy by up to 5.2% in the first few years after enactment.

“We put out a report from the Council of Economic Advisers that if the bill doesn’t pass, then they estimate that this would cause a reduction of GDP by 4%, we’d be in a deep recession, we’d lose six or seven million jobs.”

Kevin Hassett, Director at the National Economic Council.

In an April analysis, the CEA confirmed their modeling is accurate because their 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) projections were correct. The entity estimated an increase in GDP growth between 2 and 4 percent and a $4,000 boost to per-worker wages. CEA said that macroeconomic data validated their projections and showed that real GDP was 2.5% higher than CBO’s pre-TCJA baseline, and real wages increased by $4,9992 per worker.

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The Tax Policy Center argued that though some more recent casual papers show positive effects on corporate investment, they do not support the magnitudes implied by CEA’s claims. Macroeconomic data suggest that overall investment in two assets the TCJA targeted, equipment and structures, barely budged in 2017.

ICI expects Section 899 to impact foreign investments

According to data from Apollo Global Management, foreign investors own $19 trillion in U.S. stock markets, $7 trillion in U.S. government bonds, and $5 trillion in U.S. credit. The Rhodium Group also estimated on June 9 that nearly all states face the threat of lost investment from the House bill, which totals $522 billion nationally, with the top 10 states comprising 62% of the investment.

The Investment Company Institute (ICI) warned that the bill in its current form impacts most foreign investments in U.S. stock markets. The entity believes that portfolio investors are likely to retreat from U.S. equities, leading to capital outflows from the U.S. 

In a letter sent to Senator Mike Crapo, the chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, the ICI argued that if sustained selling by foreign investors depresses U.S. equity markets, it would harm both U.S. companies and investors. The entity also suggested that the U.S. fund management industry, which has invested around $18 trillion in U.S. stock markets, would be collateral damage due to the impact of Section 899.

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Trump also issued a warning on June 5 that there would be a 68% tax hike if the OBBB legislation does not pass. However, independent analyses of the controversial bill found that Trump’s estimate is about 10 times bigger than the expected increase would be if the cuts expire. The Urban Institute-Brookings Institution Tax Policy Center, a nonpartisan think tank, has estimated, on average, Americans’ taxes would rise by about 7.5% if the 2017 tax cuts fully expired, not 68%. 

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