Oil prices crash globally as Bitcoin and stocks rally after Iran declares Strait of Hormuz open to everyone

Bitcoin options are showing a calmer market, not a more panicked one. Implied volatility has been falling across the curve, with both short-dated and longer-dated contracts getting repriced lower.

That points to normalization rather than a fresh rush into protection. The volatility curve is also fairly flat, with 1-month IV at 41.5%, sitting just under the 3-month level. That setup shows traders are no longer paying up for urgency.

The protection trade has also eased. Put premium has been losing ground against calls, which suggests demand for downside cover is softening while the market slowly repositions.

The biggest change has shown up in the front end, where 1-week skew is down about 6 points this week and 1-month skew is lower by around 3 points.

At the same time, the gap between realized volatility and implied volatility has narrowed back to roughly zero. Realized moves had briefly pushed above implied, but that spread has now closed.

That leaves options looking more fairly priced and shows traders are still split between cashing in on recent volatility and setting up for the next directional move.

Flows, though, have turned more clearly constructive. Over the last seven days, 32% of taker flow came from call buying, showing active upside positioning instead of just a pullback in hedging.

The $75,000 area has also become important in the options market. Bullish positioning has built up a sizeable short gamma pocket, with about $5 billion in negative gamma sitting between $74,000 and $78,000.

That means the breakout zone can act like an acceleration band where price moves may mechanically extend higher if momentum keeps building.

There is still protection in the system. At the $70,000 put strike, net premium remains tilted toward put buying, which shows traders are still holding downside cover.

Systematic hedge funds ramped up stock buying at a record pace over the last five trading sessions, adding $86 billion in equity exposure, reportedly based on a Goldman Sachs note published late Thursday.

The buying came as world stocks stayed close to record highs and headed for a third straight week of gains before a weekend that investors see as important for the direction of the Middle East war.

These funds, often known as CTAs or trend-following hedge funds, rely on algorithms and market signals rather than company-by-company economic views. They usually keep buying when prices are rising and pull back when those trends begin to fade.

Goldman said the last five sessions produced one of the largest CTA buying waves in history. The bank’s figures also showed that the pace of speculative buying in global equities over the past week ranks in the top five fastest buying bursts ever recorded.

The flow has been building for a while. Since markets turned higher at the start of April, hedge funds, especially systematic ones, have largely stayed on the buy side. That positioning reflects a broader bet that asset prices will keep moving higher.

Goldman’s calculations suggest the buying may not be over yet. The bank estimates these speculators could add another $70 billion to stocks over the next five trading sessions if the trend holds.

Foreign investors are moving into Chinese bonds at a record pace as money looks for fresh safe-haven options during the Iran war.

In March, trading volume in Chinese onshore bonds through Hong Kong climbed to a record $179 billion. Average daily turnover also hit an all-time high of $8.1 billion.

Those onshore bonds are yuan-denominated government and state-backed debt that overseas funds can access through the Hong Kong market.

Trading volume has now more than doubled since October 2025. The flow shows how global investors are looking beyond traditional shelters like U.S. Treasuries as the war reshapes risk appetite and pushes money toward assets seen as more insulated from the shock.

That trade has been helped by performance. Yuan-denominated bonds have beaten global peers since the conflict started, with support coming from China’s deep liquidity and its limited exposure to the energy shock.

That combination has made Chinese debt stand out at a time when investors are trying to protect capital without taking on too much direct war-related risk.

Fresh economic data also gave markets another reason to keep watching China closely. China’s economy grew 5% in the first quarter from a year earlier, faster than expected and the quickest pace in three quarters, based on figures released Thursday by the National Bureau of Statistics.

On a quarter-to-quarter basis, GDP rose 1.3% on a seasonally adjusted non-annualized basis, which was the fastest sequential growth since the last three months of 2024.

The numbers showed a split inside the economy. Industrial output rose 5.7% in March from a year earlier, beating forecasts and pointing to solid strength in manufacturing and exports. But retail sales rose just 1.7%, missing expectations and slowing from 2.8% growth in the first two months of the year.