Morgan Stanley projects SpaceX revenue at $3.4 trillion by 2040 post-IPO

U.S. bank and Wall Street giant, Morgan Stanley is predicting SpaceX to hit $3.4 trillion in annual revenue by 2040, representing a 182-times increase from the reported revenue of $18.7 billion in 2025, according to a WSJ report.

This projection is coming after Elon Musk’s space, satellite and rockets company kicked off the build-up to its coming IPO, with the firm looking to raise $75 billion in what would be the largest public offering in history.

AI development fuels Morgan Stanley’s prediction

The Morgan Stanley forecast hinges directly on the positive expectations placed on SpaceX’s artificial intelligence division, which pulled in $3.2 billion in revenue during 2025. Morgan Stanley expects this division to reach almost $190 billion by 2030 alone, marking it out as the dominant revenue hub for SpaceX. This places the division well ahead of the company’s rocket and Starlink satellite divisions, the Wall Street Journal reported.

By 2030, Morgan Stanley believes SpaceX’s total revenue will get close to $330 billion, with adjusted EBITDA hitting $230 billion. The 2040 forecast includes an adjusted EBITDA estimate of $2.7 trillion.

Goldman Sachs, SpaceX’s foremost investment bank and one of the leading financial heavyweights in the IPO alongside Morgan Stanley, has an even higher expectation of the AI division. Goldman Sachs sees SpaceX’s AI revenue logging almost $322 billion by 2030, with total revenue reaching $474 billion and an adjusted EBITDA of $352 billion, according to a Financial Times report cited by Reuters.

SpaceX is losing money

SpaceX’s current financial situation is, however, markedly far from the standing of these predictions. Elon Musk’s company accrued a net loss of $4.9 billion in 2025 after posting a $791 million profit the previous year in 2024, according to Reuters.

Revenue increased 33% from $14 billion in 2024 to $18.7 billion in 2025, with the net losses suggesting heavy capital spending. This is relatively unsurprising as SpaceX has continued to scale its constellation of satellites and AI infrastructure over the past two years.

SpaceX’s IPO filing with the SEC mentioned plans to sell 555.55 million shares at $135 each, which would value the company at approximately $1.75 trillion. Elon is expected to retain about 82.4% of the voting power after the Nasdaq listing.

Starlink and rocket operations projections

Goldman Sachs’ projections expect revenue from SpaceX’s launch operations to grow modestly, from $4.1 billion in 2025 to $8.3 billion by 2030. Starlink, which currently serves about 10.3 million subscribers across 164 countries with a constellation of more than 9,600 satellites, is predicted to generate $144 billion in revenue by 2030, making it the second most profitable division behind AI.

The Procure Space ETF (UFO) has gained 137% over the past 12 months, which could point to an increased investor interest in the space sector ahead of the SpaceX listing, according to Stocktwits.

SpaceX began its investor meetings on Thursday, with reports that investors from China and Hong Kong would be barred from participating in the IPO. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are both key players in the IPO’s underwriting, alongside BofA Securities, JPMorgan and Citi.