US stocks stall after new ATHs as ETF inflows hit record $1.5 trillion and gold stays below $4,300

Crude bounced back Thursday, clawing back some losses from the previous session. Both Brent and U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures jumped over 2%, after sliding Wednesday on supply shock fears.

That drop came right after President Donald Trump announced that Venezuela’s interim authorities would hand over up to 50 million barrels of oil to the U.S., triggering concerns over a fresh flood of supply.

That supply headline also weighed on stocks midweek, pulling both the S&P 500 and Dow into the red after they had touched fresh all-time highs. But energy traders appeared to shake off those jitters Thursday, sending oil back up.

Meanwhile, defense stocks just keep running. The iShares US Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) opened at a record high of 235.94, its fifth intraday high in a row. That puts the fund on track for its best single-day performance since April 9, 2025, when it surged 9%.

ITA is now up 5.7% on the week and aiming for its fifth straight weekly gain.

Small caps joined the party too. The Russell 2000 rose 0.8% and briefly hit a new all-time high, its first since December 12. The charge was led by Neogen, Serve Robotics, Kratos, Red Cat, and Bloom Energy, all of which were up double digits in early trading.

The US just made energy history. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports jumped 25% in 2025 to hit a record 116 million tons, making America the first country ever to export over 100 million tons of LNG in a single year.

December alone saw an all-time monthly high of 11.5 million tons, capping off a year that broke five monthly records.

The US now accounts for about 25% of global LNG exports, nearly 20 million tons more than both Qatar and Australia, the next biggest players. With more capacity coming online, 2026 could see an additional 20 million tons shipped out.

This comes as the shale boom reshapes global energy flows and geopolitical leverage.

In a parallel effort to expand its global footprint, the US is reportedly considering offering every Greenlander between $10,000 and $100,000 to support secession from Denmark, a move that could result in the largest acquisition in world history.

Meanwhile, the corporate debt market is flexing strength too. The New York Fed’s high-yield distress index just fell to 0.06, the lowest level ever recorded. That gauge measures borrowing stress across the junk bond market—liquidity, trading, and access to capital.

For perspective: it was over 0.60 in 2020 during the pandemic and 0.80 in 2008 during the global financial crisis. These ultra-low readings have helped fuel a rally in high-yield debt.

The $HYG ETF just notched its third straight year of gains, with a +9% return in 2025. Simply put: credit is wide open, and the US bond market is humming.

Iran has shut down internet access across the country, according to NetBlocks, just hours after massive crowds took to the streets following calls for protests.

The London-based monitoring group said this was part of escalating digital censorship as anti-government demonstrations heat up.

The blackout, also reported by Tehran-based outlets, came shortly after 8 p.m., the time set by Prince Reza Pahlavi in his nationwide protest call. Protests have since erupted across major cities, including the capital, despite violent crackdowns by state security forces.

NetBlocks said the move hinders Iranians’ right to communicate “at a critical moment.” This is not the first time Tehran has pulled the plug, nationwide internet shutdowns also took place during the protest waves of 2022, 2019, and 2009, usually followed by violent government responses that eventually stamped them out.

Even in “normal” times, access to platforms like Instagram and X is heavily restricted, with many Iranians relying on VPNs to reach the outside world.

But the current digital blackout is total, according to NetBlocks, and hit the country immediately after crowds began to mobilize.

Scott Bessent pushed hard Thursday for more rate cuts, calling them the missing piece in President Donald Trump’s economic plan.

In prepared remarks ahead of a speech to the Economic Club of Minnesota, the Treasury Secretary said the country needs easier monetary policy to keep the momentum going.

“Cutting interest rates will have a tangible impact on the lives of every Minnesotan,” Bessent said in excerpts obtained from inside the administration. “It is the only ingredient missing for even stronger economic growth. Which is why the Fed should not delay.”

The Federal Reserve already slashed rates three times in late 2025, for a total of 75 basis points, dropping the benchmark rate to a 3.5%-3.75% range.

But that pace is expected to slow sharply this year. Market pricing currently implies just two cuts, and Fed officials’ own forecasts suggest there may only be one.

Bessent also happens to be overseeing the search for the next Fed chair. Jerome Powell’s term ends in May, and the shortlist has been narrowed to five names, with Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh seen as frontrunners.

There’s risk, of course. Looser policy could bring inflation back, even as the labor market weakens. But Bessent argued the upside outweighs the risk, pointing to Trump’s 2025 wins.

“In 2025, the President laid the foundation for robust economic growth with: the historic passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill, trade deals that rewrote decades of global misalignment; and an ambitious deregulation agenda that empowered American entrepreneurs and businesses,” Bessent said. “Now, in 2026, we will reap the rewards of President Trump’s America First agenda.”

Alphabet officially moved past Apple to become the world’s second‑largest public company, with a $3.96 trillion market value. The shift comes as equity momentum outside the US keeps picking up.

In China, trading volume hit 2.8 trillion yuan, or about $401 billion, on Tuesday. That was the highest since September and more than 2.5 times the five‑year daily average of 1.1 trillion yuan. Onshore turnover has more than doubled since June, showing broader participation in the rally.

Market breadth is widening fast. About 10% of Chinese stocks are now printing new 52‑week highs, the most since September.

Roughly six out of every seven stocks on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange finished higher over the first two trading sessions of 2026.

As a result, the CSI 300 Index is now up 3.2% year to date, adding to signs that China’s equity rally is building real momentum.

Elsewhere, the US government is weighing potential investments in critical minerals projects in Greenland, according to Amaroq.

The company operates in South Greenland and is involved in gold, copper, germanium, and gallium extraction and exploration.

Eldur Olafsson, the company’s CEO, said talks with US government bodies are ongoing and not finalized. Possible deal structures include offtake agreements, infrastructure support, and credit lines, though Eldur declined to name which projects Washington is targeting.

A US State Department spokesperson told CNBC that the United States wants long‑term commercial relationships that benefit both Americans and the people of Greenland.

President Donald Trump has stressed the island’s strategic importance to US defense and named Governor Landry as Special Envoy to Greenland, underscoring Washington’s growing focus on the region.

Stocks barely budged Thursday, with the S&P 500 slipping 0.1% and the Dow tacking on just 57 points, or 0.1%, one day after both indexes pulled back from fresh intraday highs. The Nasdaq Composite took the biggest hit, falling 0.6%.

Big tech dragged things lower. Meta and Apple both dropped more than 1%, while Oracle, still riding the artificial intelligence hype, fell over 2%, pulling the broader market down with them.

But defense names exploded. After President Donald Trump proposed a $1.5 trillion defense budget for 2027, up from $901 billion approved for 2026, stocks across the sector surged.

Kratos Defense rocketed 17%, Northrop jumped 10%, Lockheed climbed 8%, and RTX popped more than 5%.

Meanwhile, gold hovered near $4,427.48, coming off a 64% annual gain in 2025, its biggest since 1979. HSBC said prices could hit $5,000 in the first half of 2026, but flagged volatility ahead.

The bank trimmed its 2026 average price forecast to $4,587, warning of a potential correction if rate cuts pause or geopolitical tensions ease. Its 2026 range: $5,050 to $3,950, with a year-end target of $4,450. 2027 and 2028 forecasts were both lifted, with a new 2029 average target of $4,775.

On the fund side, ETF inflows in the US hit $1.5 trillion in 2025, up $400 billion from 2024, and more than 2022 and 2023 combined. It marked the third straight year of $200 billion+ gains.

That helped push total ETF assets to $13.4 trillion, after adding $3 trillion in value last year alone, the biggest yearly gain the industry’s ever seen.