In a mysterious turn of events just over a month ago, Nvidia, a prominent US technology firm renowned for producing cutting-edge computer chips, announced that the US government was imposing restrictions on the export of its most advanced chips to “some Middle Eastern countries.” The lack of specificity surrounding the impacted nations and the rationale behind the move has fueled speculation, leading many to believe that the ongoing tech war between the United States and China has now expanded its battleground to the Middle East.
US export restrictions impact Middle East AI development
As part of its ongoing efforts to curb China’s progress in artificial intelligence (AI), the United States has extended its strategy by imposing export restrictions on advanced computer chips, crucial for developing state-of-the-art AI models. Last year, the US Department of Commerce restricted the export of these chips to China and Russia, and the recent announcement adds a new layer to these limitations. The affected Middle Eastern countries remain undisclosed, but experts speculate that Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE are potential candidates due to their demonstrated capabilities, financial means, and perceived national security justifications.
Controlling AI chip exports and the Chinese factor
The US government justifies these export restrictions by highlighting the AI-enabling chips’ role as “force multipliers for military modernization and human rights abuses.” Christopher Miller, author of “Chip War: The Fight for the World’s Most Critical Technology,” points out concerns about Chinese firms using Middle Eastern countries as a means to bypass restrictions and gain access to advanced chips. This fear is fueled by the growing presence of Chinese tech companies, such as Huawei, in Middle Eastern markets.
A 2022 study by the Center for Emerging Technologies reveals that most Chinese military purchases of AI-enabling chips are made through intermediaries, including officially licensed distributors and shell companies. The potential for a similar pattern in the Middle East raises concerns about the unintentional transfer of technology to China and Russia. Countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, heavily investing in AI and strengthening ties with China, are seen as potential conduits for such transfers.
AI diplomacy and the long-term impact
Countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel have deepened their technological cooperation with China over the past decade. The King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST) in Saudi Arabia, for instance, is set to receive advanced chips from Nvidia by the end of the year. The US fears that these collaborations could expose Nvidia chips to espionage, reverse-engineering, or unintentional transfer to China and Russia, given their elevated presence in Gulf nations.
While human rights concerns play a role in the export restrictions, experts believe the primary motivation is to assert control over technology competition with China. Owen Daniels, a fellow at the Center for Security and Emerging Technology, suggests that these controls send a message to Gulf partners about the seriousness of the US stance on tech competition with China. As AI becomes a potential source of friction between democratic and autocratic states, the long-term impact of these controls on international relations remains to be seen.
