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- Core inflation came in cooler than expected, rising just 0.2% on the month and 2.6% year-over-year, both 0.1% below forecasts.
- The Fed’s 2% inflation goal is still out of reach, but this data shows some progress toward cooling price pressures.
- Silver just exploded past $88/oz for the first time ever, up 210% in 13 months.
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Futures markets now show a 95% probability that the Fed holds rates steady in the 3.5% to 3.75% range at its meeting in two weeks.
Bret Kenwell from eToro said the CPI print alone isn’t enough to push the Fed toward aggressive cuts, though softer jobs data over time could reduce inflation’s grip on policy decisions.
Sonu Varghese at Carson Group pointed to stronger December labor data, including lower unemployment, as a key reason a Q1 cut still looks unlikely, even if inflation pressure is easing.
From a market strategy angle, Art Hogan of B. Riley Wealth said the cooler‑than‑expected core reading gives the Fed some breathing room, but only if the trend continues.
Alexandra Wilson‑Elizondo at Goldman Sachs Asset Management framed the setup as “Goldilocks,” while warning that inflation data is becoming less of a trigger and more of a background constraint as political pressure on Fed independence grows.
Not everyone sounded relaxed. Ryan Weldon from IFM Investors flagged broad‑based price pressures across goods and services, arguing the CPI data combined with firm jobs numbers supports the Fed staying put as it assesses post‑shutdown disruptions.
He also warned volatility could rise as pressure from the administration builds ahead of a new Fed chair appointment expected in May.
Bitcoin jumped past $92,000 on Tuesday, driven by a 25% surge in trading volume to nearly $37 billion. This marks a sharp comeback after weeks of low activity.
As capital flows picked up, attention turned to altcoins, especially privacy tokens and memecoins, which saw fresh inflows.
By midday, Bitcoin hit $94,391, up 3.35% on the day, with a market cap of $1.89 trillion. Ethereum followed at $3,209, up 3.64%, while Solana hit $143.75, gaining 2.82%.
XRP added 3.81%, now trading around $2.13, and Dogecoin popped 5.48% to about 14.4 cents.
Across categories, meme coins, AI tokens, and Layer-1s led the charge, with strong liquidity on ETH, SOL, and BSC chains. Standouts included BNB, which spiked 4.34% to $944.19, and DeFi AI names also creeping back into favor.
Meanwhile, silver cracked $88/oz for the first time ever, now up another 24% in 2026, building on last year’s blistering +210% rally.
Core CPI rose 0.2% in December, both monthly and 2.6% annually, coming in 0.1 percentage point under forecasts, according to Tuesday’s release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The headline CPI ticked up 0.3% on the month, keeping the year-over-year rate at 2.7%, right in line with the Dow Jones consensus estimate.
While headline inflation is still above the Fed’s 2% target, the cooler core reading gives more weight to the idea that inflation’s finally losing steam. But that’s not the whole story.
Shelter costs, which make up over a third of the CPI, jumped 0.4% in December and were up 3.2% from a year ago. That single category was the biggest driver behind the monthly gain.
Other sticky areas didn’t exactly back down either. Food prices shot up 0.7%, and increases were also seen in recreation, airfares, medical care, and apparel.
That last one got hit by tariffs, unlike household furnishings, which actually saw a drop after President Donald Trump pulled back on tariff hikes for that import category.
The 1.2% spike in recreation costs was the biggest one-month jump since the index started tracking it in 1993, according to the BLS.
What to know
Core CPI rose 0.2% in December, lower than forecast, and up 2.6% year-on-year, both coming in 0.1 points under expectations.
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