Tariff payments up to $50B as America’s trade partners ‘chicken out’ from retaliation

America has gained $50B from tariff payments. Major trade partners have so far held back from retaliating against Trump’s aggressive tariffs, while other trade partners have resorted to continuing negotiations instead.

According to U.S. Treasury data, America recorded $64B in customs revenues in Q2 of 2025, a stunning $47B increase over the same period last year. The tariff increases introduced by the Trump administration, including a 10% global tariff, 50% levies on steel and aluminum, and 25% on auto imports, greatly contributed to the revenue surge.

Despite these increments, only China and Canada have responded with retaliatory tariffs. America’s remaining trade partners, including the European Union and Mexico, have either delayed action or chosen not to respond, seeking exemptions or just trying to avoid further escalations.

America has gained $50B from tariffs

China matched Trump’s tariffs earlier in the year, but Chinese revenues from customs only saw a modest 1.9% yearly increase in May. Canada, which announced $155B in counter tariffs earlier this year, has since backed down under U.S. pressure.

Mexico, America’s largest trading partner, has shied away from retaliation altogether, even after being hit with 25% tariffs in March. President Claudia Sheinbaum opted to go the negotiation route over confrontation. In ongoing discussions with the U.S., the Mexican President reiterated that the country preferred a deal.

The EU, on the other hand, drew up a list of countermeasures affecting up to €72B worth of American goods. However, it continues to delay implementation. Officials say the bloc’s retaliation is being strategically timed with Trump’s August 1 deadline for trade talks.

The EU’s reluctance to escalate trade tensions is also due to the ongoing support from the U.S. for Ukraine and NATO security guarantees.

High-level U.S. officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, have been working to discourage Brussels from taking hasty actions.

Trump is playing from a position of strength with tariffs

Supply chain analysts and economists have implied that the U.S. being at the center of the modern global economy makes retaliation a costly gamble.

A professor of economics at the City University of New York, Marta Bengoa pointed out that the world isn’t chickening out due to fear.

“It’s simply economic logic.” She said, “Today’s trade patterns heavily rely on the U.S. consumer market. Retaliation, no matter how politically satisfying, could hurt those countries more than it hurts Washington.”

Capital Economics estimated that a full blown trade war where global average tariffs rise to 24% will easily shave 1.3% off global GDP over two years. However, if tariffs remain around 10%, the economic damage will be just 0.3%.

Realistically, this has created the opportunity for Trump to push forward without facing the kind of global backlash that once came with trade conflicts. Economists have also noted that Trump’s willingness to escalate further gives him tactical advantage.

Alexander Klein, an economic history professor at the University of Sussex said Trump doesn’t exactly care about inflation and global supply risks because that allows him to call the shots, while others keep trying to contain the fallout. Trump threatened last week to impose a 50% tariff on Brazil with little warning and barely any political justifications, but it attracted no coordinated pushback.

Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney campaigned on a tougher trade position with the U.S. but has since taken on a more cautious approach. He backed off a planned digital services tax after U.S. objections and chose not to mirror Trump’s latest hike in steel tariffs to 50%.

A former adviser said Carney’s “elbows up” rhetoric might have worked during the election, but Canada couldn’t afford to be confrontational with the United States.

Companies like Apple are trying to absorb tariff costs through global pricing strategies. Simon Geale of Proxima, said companies will try to protect the U.S. market from the full brunt of tariffs by spreading the cost.