According to pro-Ripple attorney John Deaton, the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) chances of succeeding in its legal battle against Ripple are less than 3%. According to the attorney, Ripple has a 25% chance of outright victory over the SEC and a 50% chance of winning by “splitting the baby.” The verdict rendered by Judge Torres may have a significant effect on the classification of XRP as well as the entire crypto market. The deadline for a decision is September 30.
Judge Torres to decide XRP’s classification: Security or Commodity?
The SEC has been litigating Ripple because of the alleged sale of unregistered securities, XRP, since December 2020. The attorney estimates that there is a 25% chance that Ripple will completely defeat the U.S. SEC. Nevertheless, he stated that there is a 50% probability that Ripple will win by “splitting the baby” in an edition of The Good Morning Crypto podcast broadcast on June 3.
According to reports, both sides will suffer from this decision. Judge Torres may rule that XRP was sold as an unregistered security prior to 2018 in this case. But given the Hinman records, it’s likely that whenever cryptocurrencies grow sufficiently decentralized, they might go from being securities to being commodities. The Hinman docs are being closely watched by the XRP community because they might be Ripple’s last hope.
According to Deaton, Judge Torres’ decision is likely to be rendered by September 30 of this year. Deaton emphasized that district judges must give Congress a “six-month list” every six months. On the list are all summary judgements that have been pending for more than a year. On March 31 and September 30, the list was made public.
Deaton had also previously said that June 13 was a date that the Ripple community should pay special attention to. Investors will find out on June 5 whether SEC staff members discussed XRP before Hinman’s speech.
According to the reports, the SEC sued Ripple in December 2020, claiming that the sale of its XRP coin constituted an unregistered securities offering. The inventor of CryptoLaw has been a vocal supporter of Ripple in this case.
When Judge Torress “draws a line in the sand,” she can decide that XRP was sold as an unregistered security before 2018. However, following the release of the Hinman documents, which pertain to internal SEC communications regarding a speech given in 2018 by former SEC Director William Hinman, it’s likely that cryptocurrencies could change from securities to commodities once they reach a sufficient level of decentralization.
I think that XRP itself is going to be deemed not a security and that I think that secondary market sales show comment. Even if [Judge Torres] does rule finding that Ripple violated the law, that doesn’t apply to secondary market sales.
John Deaton
The Ripple executives, including its CEO Brad Garlinghouse, have long predicted that the rollercoaster litigation from the SEC will soon come to an end.
Deaton attracted attention to the “six-month list” that district judges are required to provide to Congress. The list includes information on each summary judgment that has been pending for more than a month. The last day of March and the last day of September are when it is released. Deaton also forecasted the value of Ripple’s native XRP coin in the event of a favorable decision.
According to reports, Deaton advised the Ripple community to pay close attention to June 13 because that’s when investors will find out whether XRP was genuinely discussed between SEC staff prior to the Hinman speech. The Hinman materials will probably be released on this day, and they could have a significant influence on the case.
Will Ripple case outcome propel XRP to unprecedented heights?
Deaton predicts that XRP might rise to between $2 and $10 in the event that Ripple receives a favorable ruling. The attorney has previously stated that those who own XRP will stand to benefit most from a favorable decision in the nearly 2.5-year-old lawsuit.
On the weekly charts, XRP is presently the top gainer among the top 10 cryptocurrencies. The asset has increased by 3.1% over the past 24 hours and by 11.9% over the past seven days. From its all-time high of $3.40, XRP is still down 84.14%. But if the Ripple case succeeds, the asset can reach unprecedented heights. The decision may even trigger a new cryptocurrency surge because it is expected to provide significant clarification for the sector and for U.S. policymakers about the regulation of digital assets.
