Bitcoin surges above $94,000 as Venezuela president Maduro pleads not guilty in US court

Bitcoin is now stabilizing within the $80,000 to $95,000 range, with momentum starting to recover and sell-side pressure fading.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has bounced back into upper-neutral territory, signaling renewed upside buildup.

Spot volumes are rising modestly, while sell pressure is clearly retreating, but liquidity remains thin, and no signs of over-speculation have emerged yet.

In derivatives, positioning is returning gradually. Futures open interest is climbing, but long-side funding costs have eased, meaning leverage is moderate, not overheated.

Perpetual futures markets have flipped back to buy-side dominance, suggesting early accumulation is underway as directional confidence returns.

Options traders are nervous. Volatility spreads are breaking above historical bands, and open interest has dropped sharply, indicating a de-risking wave and rising expectations for near-term turbulence. The tone is clear: positioning is back, but conviction is cautious.

On the institutional side, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF flows have flipped positive, with rising volumes and elevated MVRV ratios showing fresh demand. But that also means profit-taking risk from TradFi is climbing as positions go green.

On-chain metrics paint a mixed picture. More supply is back in profit, and realised losses are fading, suggesting improving sentiment. But realised capital growth is still negative, showing net capital outflows continue, and hot money is dominating the holder base, leaving Bitcoin vulnerable to volatility.

Nicolás Maduro appeared in U.S. District Court in Manhattan around noon ET alongside his wife, Cilia Flores, facing a sweeping indictment accusing him of running a narco-state from inside the Venezuelan government.

The 25-page federal filing labels Maduro as the “illegitimate ruler” of Venezuela, citing fraudulent elections and a long-running alliance with narco-traffickers and terrorist organizations.

Prosecutors say Maduro “leveraged government power to protect and promote illegal activity, including drug trafficking,” and accuse him of working with violent groups to ship tons of cocaine into the U.S. over several years.

The indictment claims this narcotics operation “lined the pockets of Venezuelan officials and their families” while empowering armed militants who operated freely on Venezuelan soil.

Maduro stood firm during the arraignment. “I’m a decent man. I’m still the president of my country,” he told Judge Alvin Hellerstein, denying all wrongdoing.

His wife, Flores, introduced herself in court as the “first lady of the Republic of Venezuela.” When asked how she pleaded, she responded: “Not guilty. Completely innocent.”

Bitcoin just surged above $94,000, climbing nearly $6,000 since Friday night as over $200 million in leveraged short positions were liquidated in a single day.

The breakout now puts $94,000 as the new line in the sand for crypto markets, with traders squeezing risk assets higher even as Fed policy remains in limbo.

Neel Kashkari, President of the Minneapolis Fed, said on Monday that the U.S. central bank may be close to ending its rate-cutting streak.

“My guess is we’re pretty close to neutral right now,” he said during a live interview, adding that policymakers are still weighing tight labor markets against stubborn inflation.

The Fed’s benchmark rate is currently 3.5%–3.75%, just about half a percentage point from the projected neutral zone. Kashkari’s comments matter more this year, he’s a voting member of the FOMC in 2026 and has previously criticized recent rate cuts, citing resilient growth and Trump’s inflationary tariffs.

“We kept thinking the economy would slow down. It hasn’t. That means monetary policy might not be putting that much downward pressure,” he said.

Markets are now watching for Wednesday’s ADP employment data and Friday’s full jobs report, which could change the Fed’s tone.

China has invested $4.8 billion in Venezuela over the last two decades, mostly through state-owned giants like China National Petroleum Corporation, according to U.S.-based Rhodium Group.

These investments, heavily concentrated in the energy sector during the post-2008 financial crisis and the final years of Hugo Chávez’s rule, are now directly at risk following Trump’s military takeover of Venezuela.

One of the latest Chinese bets was made just months ago. In August, China Concord Resources Corp. pledged over $1 billion into a new oil project targeting 60,000 barrels per day by end of 2026, per Reuters. Now, Beijing is in damage control mode.

Chinese Foreign Ministry officials said Monday they’ve received no reports of injured Chinese nationals in the U.S. operation, but Beijing is warning Washington not to interfere further.

Dong Shaopeng of Renmin University said protecting Chinese nationals and corporate interests is Beijing’s top priority. The government called the U.S. strike a “bullying action” and reaffirmed its noninterference doctrine in Latin America.

“China never seeks spheres of influence, nor does it target any third party,” said foreign ministry spokesperson Lin, brushing aside U.S. accusations.

Despite the tensions, China remains Venezuela’s top crude buyer, according to S&P Global. But the volumes are limited. Venezuelan oil made up only 2% of China’s crude imports in 2024, with most coming from the Middle East.

In fact, imports from Iran and Iraq rose in 2023–24, while Venezuelan flows fell, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration data.

Palantir stock is up nearly 5% in overnight trading, as markets bet the U.S. used its tech in the flawless capture of Nicolás Maduro.

There’s no confirmation yet, but investors are pricing in heavy Palantir involvement in what’s now being called the most sophisticated U.S. military op in years. The reaction suggests Wall Street believes Palantir helped coordinate intelligence, surveillance, or strike logistics during the mission.

The company, which has long contracts with U.S. defense and intelligence agencies, has now added billions in value overnight, as global markets digest both the Maduro takedown and Trump’s pledge to take back Venezuela’s oil infrastructure.

Meanwhile, China is fuming. Foreign Minister Wang Yi told Pakistan’s Ishaq Dar that Beijing rejects “any country acting as the world’s judge”, referring to the Venezuela mission. Wang made clear that China’s stake in Venezuelan oil exports will be “protected by law.” While he didn’t name the U.S., his language made it obvious who the message was for.

On the FX side, markets are like this right now:

• DXY Index jumped 0.3%, hitting its highest since December 22

• Euro dropped 0.3%, peso slid 0.7%, and Treasury yields edged down one basis point

• USD strengthened across most pairs:

  • USD/CHF: 0.795 (+0.30%)

  • USD/CAD: 1.378 (+0.36%)

  • USD/INR: 90.28 (+0.32%)

  • USD/RUB: 80.85 (+0.69%)

  • USD/SEK: 9.235 (+0.39%)

Bitcoin has jumped to $93,410, pushing higher in early Asia hours as Donald Trump threatened Cuba, Colombia, and Mexico with potential Venezuela-style military action.

Silver is now up 4% to $75.10/oz, the highest since the chaos began. This market is running on adrenaline, and every asset is moving on geopolitics.

Chevron stock is up 11% in overnight trading, adding a massive $35 billion in market cap after Trump confirmed the U.S. will control Venezuela’s oil assets.

U.S. oil stocks are exploding along with Chevron. Here is a flash look:

• Valero (VLO): +11%

• ConocoPhillips (COP): +10%

• Marathon (MPC): +10%

• Exxon Mobil (XOM): +7%

• Phillips 66 (PSX): +6%

• Occidental (OXY): +4%

• EOG Resources (EOG): +4%

• Devon Energy (DVN): +4%

• Kinder Morgan (KMI): +3%

Meanwhile, Cryptopolitan is listening to Trump tell reporters aboard Air Force One that:-

“The oil companies are ready to go in. They’re going to rebuild the infrastructure.” He said the U.S. itself won’t invest cash but will “run everything” and “take the oil back.”

“You can’t do that. You can’t do that with me. They did it with other presidents. We’re not going to invest anything. We’re going to just take care of the country. We’re going to cherish the country. We’re going to take care, more importantly, of the people, including Venezuelans that are living in our country that were forced to leave their country.”

Trump made it clear this isn’t just about Venezuela. “Cuba looks like it’s going down,” he said. “Colombia’s run by a sick man. Mexico has cartels running the country.” He warned that Mexico could be next if it doesn’t act, saying he offered to send troops but was rejected.

Trump claimed Venezuela has “trillions in oil,” dismissed concerns about regime change, and pitched the operation as “peace on Earth.”

He insisted this wasn’t interventionism, calling it a “national security strategy” that shuts down a narco-terrorist corridor and “makes America safer and more prosperous.”

Asked about business commitments, Trump said Chevron’s in and that other sectors like steel and mining will follow.

He repeated that Venezuela “stole American infrastructure” and vowed to reclaim it without U.S. taxpayer money. “We’re not spending very much money at all, if anything,” he said.

Crypto is roaring green across the board, with total market cap up more than $90 billion in the past 24 hours. Bitcoin is back at $91,336, rising nearly $2,300 since the U.S. military captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

The rally comes despite geopolitical risks heating up. China has demanded Maduro’s release, while Donald Trump confirmed U.S. oil firms will be sent to fix Venezuela’s wrecked energy sector.

From a trading perspective, Polymarket bettors are positioning bullish on Bitcoin. Broader risk appetite looks alive, so we may see U.S. markets open green tomorrow.

On the oil front, OPEC+ is sticking to its Q1 supply freeze, with delegates from Saudi Arabia and Russia meeting Sunday by video. While they say it’s too early to factor in Venezuela, the country’s long-term oil output could soon become a hot topic.

Venezuela sits on the largest oil reserves on earth but pumps less than 1% of global demand. Crude futures fell 18% last year, and analysts are warning of a glut building through 2026, so this could shift fast.

As for the coins:

• Bitcoin (BTC): $91,336, up $746 or +0.82%

• Ethereum (ETH): $3,145.55, up $20.12 or +0.64%

• Ripple (XRP): $2.0635, up 0.0459 or +2.27%

• Solana (SOL): $134.31, up $0.99 or +0.74%

• Binance Coin (BNB): $886.9, up $8.5 or +0.97%

• Dogecoin (DOGE): $0.15258, up 0.0095 or +6.64%