Bitcoin surges to $92,500 as rebound continues with US stocks

Treasury yields edged up Friday, even as markets remained quiet ahead of next week’s key PCE inflation report.

The 10-year yield rose more than 2 basis points to 4.019%, while the 30-year climbed to 4.668%, and the 2-year pushed up to 3.497%.

Shorter-term bills were mixed. The 3-month yield dipped to 3.806%, down over 4 basis points, and the 6-month slipped to 3.782%.

There were no major economic releases Friday, but everyone’s already locked in on next week’s personal consumption expenditures index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. That reading will likely make or break the current momentum behind rate cut bets.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are now pricing in over 85% odds that the Federal Reserve cuts rates by a quarter-point in December.

On Polymarket, those odds have climbed to 87%. And if the data lines up, some are even betting the third rate cut of 2025 is coming, despite inflation still hovering above 3%.

Silver just broke into uncharted territory, blasting past its October peak to hit a new record of $55.11 an ounce by 9:38 a.m. in New York, jumping 3.2% on the day.

The historic rally follows weeks of tight supply, ETF inflows, and growing hopes of a Fed rate cut in December.

Spot prices earlier surged as much as 2.6%, breaching $54.76, a level last seen during the chaotic London squeeze in October that rattled metals desks worldwide.

While a flood of nearly 54 million troy ounces eventually arrived to ease that episode, the market never truly normalized. One-month silver borrowing costs remain well above typical levels, flashing red on traders’ radars.

The ripple effects are now reaching China. Inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses have dropped to their lowest level since 2015, and trading volumes on the Shanghai Gold Exchange have sunk to nine-year lows, per bourse and brokerage data.

Gold also joined the move, rising 1.1% to $4,201.43 an ounce, but all eyes today are on silver.

Bitcoin is making a fierce comeback. The world’s original cryptocurrency was last seen trading at $92,551, staging a 10% rebound over the past five days, according to CoinGecko.

After a brutal -36% drawdown earlier this month, strategists at BTIG now believe the stage is set for a reflex rally back to $100,000.

“After a -36% peak-to-trough decline, we think Bitcoin is now poised to continue its reflex rally at least back towards 100k,” said Jonathan Krinsky, analyst at BTIG, in a Wednesday note to clients.

Despite the surge, Bitcoin remains down 20% for the month, hammered by a mix of macroeconomic headwinds and crypto-specific selling. Some investors are fleeing risk-on assets amid anxiety over AI stock valuations, while others are reacting to mixed federal economic data.

On-chain, long-term holders are reportedly selling in line with Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle logic, which historically triggers price resets before major rallies.

Crypto mining stocks are also flashing strength. Cipher Mining has surged 35% since Monday, and Terawulf is up 31%, BTIG said. The broader crypto miner index has “held support” and could rally another 15% before hitting major resistance, analysts added.

Ether, the second-largest token, is also bouncing, up 13% in the past five days and aiming to reclaim the $3,400 level after dropping 24% this month. Solana and XRP also joined the rally, rising 12% and 15%, respectively.

By early Friday afternoon in London, stocks across Europe were mostly in the green, with the Stoxx 600 drifting 0.1% higher around 1 p.m. local time. Most major bourses and sectors were riding a cautious wave of optimism, as investors prepared to close out a volatile month.

France’s CAC 40 gained 0.26%, Germany’s DAX climbed 0.33%, and Italy’s FTSE MIB added 0.12%. Over in the UK, the FTSE 100 rose 0.24%, while Spain’s IBEX 35 slipped 0.11%, one of the few laggards.

Healthcare stocks were the standout this month. Roche and Bayer got a lift after posting strong trial results, while Abivax, a French biotech, has now skyrocketed over 1000% year-to-date, powered by buzz around its ulcerative colitis treatment.

But tech? Not so lucky. Fears of a U.S.-driven AI bubble seeped into European markets. ASMI, a key chip-gear supplier, is down nearly 15% for the month, though it hovered just above flat on Friday. ASML, the Dutch semiconductor heavyweight, dropped 0.3%.

Markets across Asia were choppy Friday morning as traders awaited Tokyo’s inflation data, a closely watched preview of Japan’s broader price trajectory.

With CME futures still frozen, regional investors were left to lean on local economic signals.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 inched down 0.15%, even as the Topix eked out a 0.1% gain. Over in South Korea, the Kospi tumbled 1.41%, while its smaller sibling the Kosdaq surged 3.4%, catching bargain-hunters off guard.

Australia’s ASX 200 dipped just 0.04%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slid 0.24%, dragged by lingering weakness in property. Still, China Vanke shares bounced 1.68% after hitting rock-bottom earlier in the week.

Mainland China’s CSI 300 rose 0.23%, and over in India, the Nifty 50 added 0.11% while the Sensex ticked up 0.14%.