Bitcoin’s price is on the brink of something huge, and it looks like the U.S. elections might be the spark that lights the fire. After what feels like forever, Bitcoin has broken out of its $58,000 to $63,000 range, thanks to Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole.
This speech seems to have provided the push needed to get Bitcoin out of its sluggish state. The Federal Reserve has confirmed there will be rate cuts in September, though they’re keeping everyone guessing about the exact amount.
That’s got the markets a bit jittery, but most people are betting that a 25 basis point cut could give Bitcoin a nice boost. But if the Fed decides on a 50 basis point cut, it might signal that they’re going all-in to keep the economy from tanking.
This kind of uncertainty is the stuff Bitcoin thrives on. Last night’s rally was mostly driven by spot trading. The funding rates are flat, which is something to watch.
What this tells us is that the real action is happening in spot trading, not leveraged positions. But that could change fast if Bitcoin holds above $63,000. We could see an influx of leveraged long positions as we get closer to the end of summer.
About 600 calls for the $62,500 to $63,000 range, which are now in-the-money, were snapped up. And it doesn’t stop there. The bulls are still stacking up on long bets for December and March, targeting strikes between $80,000 and $85,000.
Clearly, these traders are betting on Bitcoin hitting new heights by the end of the year. But don’t get too excited just yet. While next week’s Nvidia earnings report and the upcoming September rate cut are significant, don’t expect Bitcoin to break out of this range until Q4.
That’s when the U.S. elections come into play, and if history tells us anything, it’s that election season can be a game-changer for Bitcoin. Add in the usual bullish seasonality, and we might just see BTC hitting an all-time high.
