Bitcoin struggles to find footing as US stocks close best day in 6 months

Retail and institutional traders are piling back into stocks, on leverage. Trading volume in leveraged-long U.S. equity ETFs hit ~$26 billion last week, the highest since the post-April bounce and the third-largest total in at least 5.5 years, excluding that spike.

That level of risk-on activity hasn’t been seen since the meme stock craze of late 2021 and the early stages of the 2022 bear market, when traders blindly bought any dip in sight.

According to ETF flow data from Bloomberg, last week’s spike was more than double the average for 2025, a sharp sign of renewed confidence, or possibly just desperation-fueled FOMO.

And the ecosystem for this kind of trading is ballooning. The number of leveraged equity ETFs in the market has jumped by nearly 200 this year, hitting a record 701 funds in October.

Wall Street closed with a bang Monday as tech bulls stampeded back in, lifting the Nasdaq Composite by 2.69% to 22,872.01, its strongest one-day rally since May 12, when it gained over 4%.

The S&P 500 rose 1.55% to finish at 6,705.12, while the Dow Jones tacked on 202.86 points, or 0.44%, to settle at 46,448.27.

The surge was led by Alphabet, which jumped 6.3%, as excitement mounted over its Gemini 3 launch. The AI model, revealed just last week, marks a major update following Gemini 2.5, and signals Google’s intent to claw back dominance in the generative AI space. Traders appear to believe it’s working.

That optimism spilled across the board. Broadcom ripped 11.1% higher, Micron climbed 8%, and Palantir and AMD each soared 4.8% and 5.5%, respectively.

Meta, Amazon, and Nvidia also closed in the green, adding fuel to a comeback rally that’s been missing in action all month.

U.S. stocks punched higher on Monday, with a broad tech rally powered by Alphabet helping Wall Street recover some ground after last week’s AI-driven meltdown.

The S&P 500 surged 1.4%, the Nasdaq Composite popped 2.3%, and the Dow Jones added 226 points, or 0.5%, as investors rotated back into risk assets ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday break.

Alphabet led the charge, jumping 4%, as optimism swelled over its role in the AI arms race. The gains came after Google last week introduced Gemini 3, its latest large language model, just eight months after launching Gemini 2.5. Traders read that as a sign the company’s AI rollout is finally finding momentum.

The ripple effect was immediate. Broadcom soared 9%, Micron climbed 7%, and Palantir and AMD both rallied around 5%, reviving enthusiasm across the chip and data analytics space that had been badly dented in recent sessions.

The Trump family’s net worth has dropped by about $1 billion since early September, down to $6.7 billion from $7.7 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, and most of that slide is tied to one thing: crypto.

The trigger was a brutal month for Trump Media & Technology Group, which owns Truth Social and is chaired by Donald Trump.

The company’s shares hit an all-time low last Wednesday, and insiders say the nosedive is linked to its heavy, poorly-timed exposure to crypto. Trump Media, which isn’t profitable, has tried to pivot into digital assets. But that move is now backfiring.

Trump’s personal stake in the company, held in a trust controlled by Donald Trump Jr., lost $800 million in value over the last two months.

Bloomberg claims that Trump Media spent around $2 billion back in July to buy Bitcoin and related derivatives, including options.

At the time, Bitcoin was trading around $115,000, meaning the company’s 11,500 BTC stash is now underwater by about 25%.

On top of that, Trump Media started hoarding CRO tokens, the native asset of Crypto.com, with a portfolio that was once worth $147 million as of September. Since then, CRO has lost roughly 50%, slicing that pile nearly in half.

There’s more: Trump Media and Crypto.com are now co‑developing a political and sports betting platform called Truth Predict, designed as a blockchain-based prediction market. It hasn’t launched yet, but insiders say it’s being built to run off the CRO ecosystem.

Finally, the family also holds a massive chunk of WLFI tokens, the speculative Trump-aligned crypto that briefly hit a paper valuation of nearly $6 billion.

But that’s now down to $3.15 billion, and those coins remain locked and non-tradeable, so they’re not even counted in Bloomberg’s net worth estimates.

So far in November, investors have yanked $3.5 billion out of U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs, just a hair away from the $3.6 billion record set back in February.

The one feeling it the most is BlackRock’s IBIT, the giant of the group holding around 60% of total assets.

IBIT alone has seen $2.2 billion in redemptions this month, and unless something dramatic flips the mood, this will go down as its worst month ever.

Bitcoin’s price has been moving in lockstep with the flows. After crashing to $80,553 on Friday, the token bounced a bit over the weekend but was still stuck around $86,998 at 8:00 a.m. in London, keeping it 7% lower year‑to‑date.

The problem is structural: these ETFs have become the main emotional pulse of crypto since launching in January 2024, and they now dictate how quickly capital rushes in, or bolts to the exit.

Citi Research has even put numbers on it. Alex Saunders from Citi says every $1 billion in outflows knocks roughly 3.4% off Bitcoin’s price, and the reverse is true when money comes in.

With billions flowing out instead of in, Alex’s bear‑case target of $82,000 by year‑end suddenly doesn’t feel far‑fetched at all.

And Friday showed just how intense the pressure has gotten. Bitcoin ETFs recorded all‑time‑high trading volumes of $11.5 billion, according to Bloomberg’s data.

IBIT alone traded $8 billion worth, while still finishing the day with $122 million in outflows, a brutal combination that tells you traders are active, nervous, and heading for the door.

European equities opened on a firmer note Monday, with the Stoxx 600 up 0.68% to 565.90 by 8:35 a.m. in London, as most sectors turned green despite a pullback in defense names.

Germany’s DAX led gains, climbing 1.24% to 23,378.02, while Spain’s IBEX 35 added 1.13% to 16,001.00. In France, the CAC 40 rose 0.59% to 8,030.04, and London’s FTSE 100 gained 0.53% to 9,590.35. The outlier was Italy’s FTSE MIB, which slipped 0.12% to 42,611.18.

Pharma was the bright spot. Bayer AG surged 11%, topping the leaderboard after revealing strong Phase III trial results for Asundexian, its next-gen stroke prevention drug.

Investors cheered the data, hoping the blood thinner can compete with blockbusters like Eliquis and Xarelto.

AstraZeneca also edged 0.2% higher after confirming a massive $2 billion investment into its biologics plant in Frederick, Maryland, part of a $50 billion U.S. expansion plan revealed on Friday.

Meanwhile, Ubisoft’s stock surged 15% in Paris, their biggest rally since December 6, after the company finalized a €1.16 billion ($1.3 billion) cash injection from Tencent.

The deal gives Tencent a stake in Ubisoft’s Vantage Studios, a division spun out to focus on AAA franchises like Assassin’s Creed and Far Cry, and will help the French publisher pay down debt.

On the flip side, defense stocks were under pressure, with Rheinmetall down 2.7%, Renk off 2.9%, Hensoldt losing 2.1%, and Saab down 1.6%, as traders reacted to ongoing Ukraine-Russia peace talks.

A draft proposal seen as too lenient toward Moscow has rattled investors betting on prolonged military spending.

Europe’s Aerospace and Defense Index slipped 0.8%, the only major sector in the red.

Asian markets wrapped up last week under pressure as investors dumped tech stocks, with giants like Samsung Electronics, SoftBank, and Baidu taking heavy hits.

But Monday brought a patchy bounce; Hong Kong, Australia, and China posted modest gains, while Japan remained shut for a holiday.

The Hang Seng Index jumped 1.97% to 25,716.50, powered by a surge in tech and healthcare shares.

Over in mainland China, the Shanghai Composite edged up 0.05%, closing at 3,836.77, while the broader CSI 300 dipped 0.12% to 4,448.05, weighed down by financials.

South Korea saw a reversal late in the session, the Kospi slid 0.19% to 3,846.06, even though Samsung Electronics rose 2%, bucking the trend. The Kosdaq, focused on smaller caps, dropped 0.87% to 856.44.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rebounded with a 1.29% gain to 8,525.10, recovering from last Friday’s 1.59% drop.

The spotlight was on Qube Holdings, which soared nearly 20% after Macquarie Asset Management made a $7.49 billion (A$11.6 billion) acquisition offer.

Meanwhile, BHP shares climbed 0.62% after ditching its merger plans with Anglo American.

India’s Nifty 50 was flat at 26,077.55, inching up 0.04%, while the BSE Sensex drifted with low volume ahead of Tuesday’s macro data.

Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 didn’t trade Monday due to a public holiday, but last week’s 2.4% drop to 48,625.88 marked its worst single-week performance in over a month.

U.S. stock futures pushed higher early Monday as Wall Street tried to claw back losses heading into Thanksgiving week, after a bruising stretch that’s seen this year’s AI-fueled bull run stall out.

At last check, Dow futures were up 124 points (0.27%), S&P 500 futures gained 0.52%, and Nasdaq-100 futures rose 0.75%, showing a bit of a bounce as traders eye lighter volume and seasonal tailwinds.

But underneath, the damage is real: last week alone, the S&P 500 lost 2%, the Nasdaq dropped 2.7%, and the Dow slid 1.9%. For November so far, the Nasdaq is down 6.1%, while the broader market has shed around 3.5%.

With markets closed Thursday for the U.S. holiday and closing early at 1 p.m. ET Friday, traders are watching closely for any data that might swing sentiment before the lull.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, futures traders are now betting with nearly 70% confidence that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points at its final meeting of the year on December 10.

Just a week ago, Cryptopolitan reported that number was only 44%.

The Fed’s target rate currently sits between 3.75% and 4.00%, and even a minor cut would light a fire under beaten-down tech and growth names, assuming the macro backdrop doesn’t worsen first.

Oil prices took a breather on Monday, stabilizing after their worst weekly drop since early October, as traders tried to figure out how much a potential Ukraine-Russia peace deal could flood the market with more crude.

Brent was holding just above $62 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate hovered near $58. The focus right now is on peace talks.

Marco Rubio, U.S. Secretary of State, said Sunday’s discussions with Ukraine were “productive,” though Donald Trump’s Nov. 27 deadline to secure Kyiv’s support may get pushed back.

Meanwhile, Andriy Yermak, a senior adviser to Volodymyr Zelenskiy, confirmed there’s now a “refined framework” being reviewed.

But the market isn’t just reacting to diplomacy. Oil’s been battered all year, with futures heading for their fourth straight monthly loss.

That would mark the longest down stretch since 2023, mainly due to booming global output, especially from OPEC+.

The International Energy Agency now sees a record crude surplus by 2026, and traders are on edge over whether a peace deal would lead to sanctions on Russia being lifted.

There’s still plenty of friction though. European leaders have slammed the draft proposal as being too soft on Moscow. At the G20 summit in South Africa, a joint statement called for “additional work” before anything is finalized.

Elsewhere, new tension is bubbling in the Middle East. Israel confirmed it killed Abu Ali Al-Tabtabai, Hezbollah’s chief of general staff, in a rare Beirut airstrike, casting doubt on the nearly year-long ceasefire with Lebanon.

Some metrics show things loosening up. The WTI prompt spread, a key measure of tightness, has narrowed to just 25 cents per barrel, down more than half from a month ago. That’s not a good sign for bulls.

Next big checkpoint: the OPEC+ meeting on November 30. The group’s expected to hit pause on its push to restart idled capacity, at least for Q1 2026, but that could change if the peace deal shifts the balance.

Gold is showing signs of hesitation, slipping slightly on Monday as traders try to figure out if the Federal Reserve will cut rates before year-end.

The metal was down 0.3% to $4,051.69 an ounce as of 12:03 p.m. in Singapore, after logging a modest weekly loss last week.

After a choppy Friday session, gold trimmed its losses late in the day following comments from John Williams, the New York Fed President, who said a rate cut could be on the table “soon.”

Even with that signal, prices closed lower and have stayed soft into Monday.

Right now, the market is stuck waiting, U.S. government shutdowns have delayed critical economic data, so traders are turning to upcoming September retail sales and PPI (out Tuesday) and jobless claims (Wednesday) for clues.

According to futures pricing, the probability of a quarter-point cut in December is hovering just above 60%, and that’s what’s giving gold some underlying support.

Remember, lower rates tend to help bullion since it doesn’t yield interest, making it more attractive when yields fall.

Despite today’s dip, gold’s broader trend is still bullish. The metal surged past $4,380 an ounce back on October 20, and it’s up 55% year-to-date, driven by global trade fears, war risk, and investor panic over government deficits.

Silver held steady, while platinum and palladium inched up, and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index barely moved.

Bitcoin kicked off the week deep in the red, dragging its heels after a brutal selloff that’s now threatening to lock in its worst monthly loss since 2022.

The world’s biggest token briefly slipped below $86,000 early Monday, falling as much as 2.3% before staging a modest rebound.

By 10:24 a.m. in Singapore, it was trading at $87,986, according to Bloomberg data. That’s still well above Friday’s panic bottom of $80,553, but the mood across crypto desks is anything but cheerful.

Traders say there’s still zero relief in sight despite a slew of policy tailwinds, including full-throated support from Donald Trump, who over the weekend once again threw his weight behind crypto and slammed the Biden administration for “regulatory sabotage.”

But that hasn’t been enough to shake Bitcoin out of its November funk.

Unless things turn around fast, November is on track to be Bitcoin’s worst month since the FTX collapse, the same month that Sam Bankman-Fried’s empire imploded under fraud allegations and triggered a wave of panic selling across the entire digital asset sector.

Rachael Lucas, an analyst at BTC Markets, told us the level to watch right now is $85,200, which she says has become the new battleground for bulls.

“Technicals and macro headwinds are dominating over fundamentals right now,” Rachael said, “but history shows these liquidation flurries often precede bounces, if no new shocks hit.”