AI trade boom could lift global commerce beyond forecasts in 2026, WTO chief says

The growing trade in artificial intelligence equipment might lift worldwide commerce beyond current estimates this year, according to the head of the World Trade Organization, even as concerns about American tariffs loom over the global economy.

Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, who leads the WTO, told Bloomberg Television on Friday that AI-related investment accounts for 42% of the increase in goods trade expected for 2025. This includes computer hardware, software, and infrastructure needed for data centers.

Trade projections may be revised upward

The Geneva-based organization predicted in October that global merchandise trade would grow by only 0.5% this year. That modest figure takes into account the impact of import taxes imposed by US President Donald Trump. But Okonjo-Iweala now sees room for improvement.

“However, we see a real potential upside,” she said during the interview. “If this kind of pace of trade in AI goods continues, then we will potentially see larger numbers than what we have projected.”

The WTO director general said her organization plans to review its projections soon. She pointed to the recent trade agreement between the United States and China, along with ongoing talks between the European Union and China, as critical factors for keeping international trade healthy.

Despite trade tensions, Okonjo-Iweala said the United States remains involved at the WTO and is putting forward ideas for changing how the institution operates. Speaking on the final day of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, she described the week’s mood as shifting from worry to cautious optimism.

“The atmosphere went from a great deal of apprehension to one of a little more hope,” she said.

A research paper released at the Davos meeting argues that countries should rethink how they approach AI infrastructure spending. The document, written jointly by the World Economic Forum and consulting firm Bain & Co, says no single nation can realistically build all components of the AI technology stack on its own.

The authors advise considering the development of AI as “strategic interdependence” as opposed to total self-sufficiency. This implies that nations should create alliances with reliable friends while making strategic investments domestically.

The research shows that the United States and China dominate the AI landscape, capturing roughly 65% of global investment across the entire AI value chain. This covers everything from semiconductor chips and cloud computing to software applications.

For smaller and medium-sized countries, this concentration of resources creates competitive challenges. AI infrastructure, particularly data centers and computing power, is now seen as essential for national AI capabilities.

The paper suggests that countries moving quickly can still find success by concentrating on specific areas, joining forces with neighboring nations, or securing access through partnerships instead of trying to match the American and Chinese models.

Jobs will be enhanced or eliminated

While AI equipment trade provides economic benefits, the technology’s effect on workers presents difficult questions. Kristalina Georgieva, speaking to attendees in Davos, shared findings from International Monetary Fund research on how AI will reshape job markets.

“We expect over the next years, in advanced economies, 60% of jobs to be affected by AI, either enhanced, eliminated, or transformed – 40% globally,” Georgieva said. “This is like a tsunami hitting the labour market.”

In developed nations, one out of every 10 jobs has already been improved by AI, according to the IMF chief. Workers in these enhanced positions tend to earn more money, which benefits their local communities.

However, Georgieva warned that AI threatens positions typically filled by young people entering the workforce. Entry-level jobs often involve tasks that AI can now handle, making it harder for younger workers to find good positions.

“Tasks that are eliminated are usually what entry-level jobs do at present, so young people searching for jobs find it harder to get to a good placement,” she explained.

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