US consumer confidence dips below forecasts as government shutdown looms

Consumer confidence dropped again in September, just as the U.S. braces for a possible government shutdown at midnight. The Conference Board’s main index came in at 94.2, down from 97.8 in August.

That’s the lowest reading since April and below the Dow Jones forecast of 96.0. Confidence is clearly eroding as Americans face yet another round of political chaos.

The “present situation” index also got hammered, falling to its worst level in a year. People are looking around and just not feeling good about what they see.

“Consumers’ assessment of business conditions was much less positive than in recent months, while their appraisal of current job availability fell for the ninth straight month to reach a new multiyear low,” said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist at the Conference Board. That’s a trend. And it’s been building for months.

Job openings climb slightly as hiring slows again

Even with falling consumer sentiment, the job market didn’t collapse… not yet. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 7.23 million job openings in August, a slight increase of 19,000 from July. But step back and compare it to last year, and things look worse. That total is down 422,000 or about 5.5% year over year.

This may be the last update from the BLS for a while if Congress can’t agree on spending. And it’s not just about jobs, many other key economic reports will go dark, as Cryptopolitan reported.

The JOLTS report, short for Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, showed less hiring and fewer people quitting. Quits dropped by 75,000, a signal that workers are less sure about jumping to a new job. Fed officials follow the quits closely. It tells them if people feel confident enough to leave one job for another.

Right now, they don’t.

All this matters because the Fed is watching the labor market like a hawk as it decides what to do with rates. Wall Street expects the Fed to cut rates by 0.50% by year-end, probably in October and December. But Boston Fed President Susan Collins isn’t so sure.

“My baseline outlook doesn’t see the labor market softening much further – but there are risks,” she said Tuesday. “In particular, I see some increased risk that labor demand may fall significantly short of supply, leading to a more meaningful and unwelcome increase in the unemployment rate.”

If the standoff in Congress ends by Friday, the BLS is expected to report 51,000 new jobs added in September. That’s better than the pathetic 22,000 added in August, but still not great.

The Conference Board’s survey also showed a big change in how people feel about jobs. Just 26.9% of respondents said jobs were “plentiful,” down more than 3 points from August. Meanwhile, 19.1% said jobs were “hard to get.” That part stayed flat, but it’s still not good.

Worse, people are now more worried about their wallets. Views on personal finances dropped the most in a single month since July 2022, when that question was first added.