President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that Russia’s economy “stinks” and claimed that falling oil prices would crush Vladimir Putin’s war machine.
“Putin will stop killing people if you get energy down another $10 a barrel. He’s going to have no choice because his economy stinks,” Trump said during a live interview on Squawk Box. He made it clear that he believes oil revenue is the backbone of Russia’s war in Ukraine, and if it dries up, the war ends.
This is part of Trump’s long-running one-man feud with Putin, who has refused to even acknowledge Trump’s existence for over a month. Putin hasn’t responded once, not even with a passing comment. Instead, it’s been Dmitry Medvedev, his closest confidant and former president, doing the talking, on X no less.
Medvedev called Trump’s demands dangerous and said they’re pushing the U.S. closer to war with itself. He also reminded the world that Putin doesn’t see Trump as an equal, so he will never take the bait.
Trump cuts deadline, threatens tariffs, deploys subs
Tensions between Washington and Moscow got worse when Trump shortened the timeline for a Ukraine peace deal. Last Monday, he announced that the original 50-day window was now less than two weeks. If Putin doesn’t agree to stop the war, Trump plans to slap harsh secondary tariffs on countries still trading with Russia. It’s his way of forcing others to choose sides.
Medvedev responded quickly. “Each new ultimatum is a threat and a step towards war,” he wrote on X. “Not between Russia and Ukraine, but with his own country.” Trump followed up on Friday by saying he had ordered two U.S. nuclear submarines to be moved to “the appropriate regions,” clearly referring to Russian-controlled waters.
Trump has also been attacking New Delhi and PM Narendra Modi for buying discounted Russian oil and reselling it for big profits. “India has not been a good trading partner,” he said Tuesday on CNBC. “So we settled on 25%, but I think I’m going to raise that very substantially over the next 24 hours, because they’re buying Russian oil, they’re fueling the war machine, and if they’re going to do that, I’m not going to be happy.”
Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov told reporters that Trump’s tariff threats were just “attempts to force countries to stop trade relations with Russia.” He also backed India directly, saying sovereign countries “have the right to choose their own trade partners.”
Russian economy under pressure, but not broken
Oil prices are falling, though, and that’s a problem for Putin. On Tuesday, Brent crude dropped 83 cents to $67.92 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate went down 87 cents to $65.41. This came after OPEC and its partners announced on Sunday that they would increase output, which made markets worry about weakening demand.
Russia’s finance ministry is already bracing for less revenue. It expects oil and gas income this year to be 24% lower than previously estimated. The ministry cut its oil price forecast from $69.70 to $56 per barrel. It also raised next year’s budget deficit target from 0.5% of GDP to 1.7%.
Russia’s own Economic Development Ministry sees slower growth ahead. They project the economy will expand by only 2.5% this year, down from 4.3% in 2024. Inflation is officially sitting at around 10%, but independent analysts believe it’s higher—possibly over 15%. Food and production costs have soared. Putin even admitted the situation was “alarming.”
The International Monetary Fund added more bad news in July. They revised Russia’s 2025 GDP growth down to 0.9%, from 1.5% in April. That change came after data showed weak retail activity and reduced industrial output.
Despite all this, the Russian economy hasn’t been stunted, though sanctions have clearly slowed it down. Domestic pressures have increased. Oil revenue is down. Growth is falling. But the Kremlin hasn’t shown any signs of panic.
Trade with countries like India and China continues. Putin hasn’t blinked. And Trump is still waiting for a reaction that hasn’t come, and probably never will.
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