Russia’s crude exports are falling fast, with only 3.25 million barrels per day moved out in the four weeks ending November 23, which is down by 110,000 barrels per day from the previous period, according to data from Bloomberg.
Flows have dropped by 530,000 barrels a day since mid-October, when the US announced sanctions on Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC.
This comes as U.S. and Russian teams meet in Abu Dhabi for talks on a possible peace plan for Ukraine, while both Moscow and Kyiv continue overnight strikes. Ukrainian forces hit Russia’s Black Sea ports, tightening the pressure on export routes, at the same time, these shipments are already slowing.
Indian refiners are also pulling back, turning to other suppliers to avoid the risk of sanctions, which leaves more Russian barrels stuck at sea.
Over the 28 days to November 23, weekly export income dropped $90 million to $1.13 billion, the lowest level since early April 2023. Urals leaving the Baltic averaged $46.37 after losing $2.30. Black Sea barrels slipped $3.20 to $44.77, said Bloomberg.
Pacific ESPO crude eased $1.50 to $55.80. Cargoes going to India landed at $60.04, down $0.80, and now at the weakest level since March 2023.
Export value in the seven days through November 23 fell to $1.06 billion, down 3% from the week before, as lower prices erased the small lift in volumes.
The pressure around Russia’s shipments is rising at the same time diplomats are arguing over whether Donald Trump’s White House peace outline for Ukraine could form the skeleton of a settlement.
Kyiv and its partners in Europe say more work is needed before anyone can treat it as a real plan. While those debates run in private rooms, the conflict is still active on the ground. Both Moscow and Kyiv launched fresh air attacks overnight, including hits on Russia’s Black Sea ports, areas central to crude exports.
The result is more crude circling the oceans with fewer buyers willing to touch it. Indian refiners stepping away means idle cargoes building up. And the surge in ship-to-ship transfers shows how traders are trying to keep flows alive while staying out of direct sight of sanctions monitors.
OPEC+ struggles with capacity as prices keep falling
While Russia’s barrels shrink, OPEC+ is facing its own limits. Delegates meeting this weekend are dealing with the question of how much oil members can actually pump.
Many of them have missed their own targets this year, which is why the group opened a fresh review of “maximum sustainable capacity” back in May. That review will guide production quotas for 2027, and it is likely to dominate Sunday’s meeting.
Some members appear close to their physical output ceiling. That makes it harder to set credible quotas for the coming years. A clearer picture of capacity would also make any future cuts easier to enforce.
This may matter sooner than expected. Global supply is rising, and crude has dropped to near $60 in London. Analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. say OPEC+ may have to cut production again next year to stop prices falling into the $40s.
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