Research firm Bernstein recently reported that prediction markets could hit $1 trillion in trades by 2030.
If that happens, it would flip the script on how big companies and investors handle financial uncertainty.
A portion of the plot is already revealed by the numbers. Last year, $51 billion worth of deals were handled by these markets.
By the end of this year alone, that amount is predicted to increase to over $240 billion. It translates to over 80% compound yearly growth until 2030 if that rate continues.
Polymarket and Kalshi, two of the largest platforms in the industry, have reported $60 billion in combined year-to-date volumes thus far in 2026.
For now, sports betting makes up the bulk of activity, accounting for about 62% of the market. But that is expected to flip. By 2030, most of the money in these markets (about 69%) will likely come from bets on the economy, politics, and business.
The users are changing, too. Right now, it’s mostly regular people and hobbyists.
However, experts expect that in a few years, big companies and hedge funds will be the main users, using these platforms to protect their money and get better information than they can get anywhere else.
Bernstein points to two forces driving this growth.
One is regulation. Clearer rules at the federal level are opening the door to a wider pool of participants.
Gautam Chhugani, a Bernstein analyst, said:
“We expect institutional market to develop around economics, business and political contracts, as investors seek more direct and discrete exposure to events.”
“We also expect hedging demand from corporates, (and) insurance firms exposed to specific event risks.” He added
Platform upgrades and new exchange deals
In April 2026, Polymarket launched a significant platform update, which was a noteworthy development.
The update, published on Monday, includes faster order matching, support for smart contract wallets via its CTF Exchange V2, and a new stablecoin called Polymarket USD.
Users now have more control over their money and how they interact with the site owing to smart contract wallets.
The USDC-backed new stablecoin eliminates some of the hassle associated with transferring money into and out of prediction markets by operating directly within the trading system.
On the exchange side, Phemex, a cryptocurrency trading platform, announced a partnership with Polymarket to introduce its own prediction market product.
Users will be able to trade on the outcomes of actual events in fields including technology, global culture, and finance through the new product, known as the Phemex Prediction Market.
Phemex claims that it will operate this new product using its current 500-millisecond execution engine and liquidity arrangement.
Federico Variola, the CEO of Phemex, described the move as central to his company’s direction:
“The integration of the Prediction Market, empowered by our partnership with Polymarket, is a pivotal step toward our goal of becoming the industry’s most comprehensive financial execution hub. By allowing our users to trade on the outcome of global events using institutional-grade infrastructure, we are not just expanding our product suite, we are redefining how traders engage with and profit from the future.”
How these markets actually work
What these markets actually do is the deeper change here. Fundamentally, prediction markets combine data from numerous players to generate a price that represents everyone’s expectations for a future event.
More conventional financial tools are usually responsible for this process, which is called price discovery.
According to researchers, prediction markets could develop into useful instruments for businesses and money managers that wish to hedge against uncertain outcomes rather than simply place bets on them as they get more complex.
The technology supporting these platforms is also maturing. Analysts expect the current mix of centralized and decentralized systems to give way to infrastructure that is primarily blockchain-based.
Meanwhile, rather than viewing these platforms as gray-area innovations, regulators are beginning to regard them as specified financial products.
The $1 trillion estimate is based on these changes taken together.
