Polymarket and Kalshi traders have lost millions in misplaced bets after the betting platforms overlooked late polls in the Dutch elections. The platforms failed to show that D66 was gaining popularity, pricing Geert Wilders’ PVV as a sure outcome until exit polls forced a reprice.
Until the very final hours of the Netherlands election on October 29, buyers at Polymarket and Kalshi were sure that Geert Wilders’ nationalist Partij voor de Vrijheid (Party for Freedom) would easily win.
Every major poll showed that Rob Jetten’s socially liberal Democraten 66 (D66) was getting stronger. However, the market didn’t change much. After the first exit poll, D66 odds went from 5% to 100% in minutes, taking out millions of overconfident PVV longs.
How Polymarket misread the Dutch election
According to reports, 98% of votes counted in the Dutch parliamentary elections showed that both the centrist-liberal D66 and the far-right Party for Freedom (PVV) were projected to secure 26 seats each in the 150-seat lower house.
For PVV, led by Geert Wilders, this represented a loss of 11 seats, a result that took many by surprise, especially traders who had bet heavily on the party’s success through the prediction market Polymarket. Kalshi wasn’t much better as traders overpriced Wilders’ PVV until election day.
Data from Polymarket Analytics shows that the Dutch election became less a test of foresight and more a test of conviction. Many traders clung to losing PVV bets out of ideological conviction, refusing to adjust their positions even as late polls turned decisively in favor of D66.
Weeks before the results, a smaller group of data-driven participants quietly capitalized on this shift, profiting from the same volatility that punished the so-called “conviction traders.”
At the time, analysts speculated that the bias came from crypto traders, who tend to lean right politically, or even from foreign influence. In the Dutch case, however, ideological traders dominated the market.
Meanwhile, traders like “Wisser” and “ciro2” acted on late polling data and walked away with six-figure profits, treating the market as a tool for rational trading rather than a scoreboard for ideology.
Ultimately, the Polymarket predictions served as a mirror rather than a crystal ball, reflecting the biases and emotions of its participants. The Dutch election became a real-time experiment in how theoretically rational markets can behave irrationally in practice, especially when conviction outweighs curiosity.
There’s a billion-dollar battle for prediction market supremacy
The prediction market race in the US is heating up as major players position themselves for dominance in the fast-evolving space. Kalshi, already established as the only federally licensed event contract exchange, has become the standout performer in the sports prediction sector. This month, Polymarket and Kalshi have handled over $6.3 billion in volume so far.
Sports volumes on Kalshi are now approaching $1 billion a week, with open interest consistently above $100 million. However, Kalshi’s rise has not come without friction, as it faces growing scrutiny and controversy over how closely prediction markets are edging toward traditional gambling.
On the other hand, Polymarket, its offshore rival, is preparing a dramatic return to US users before the end of November. The company has opened a waitlist and is betting big on sports contracts as its gateway back into the American market.
According to on-chain market data, traders are assigning an 89% probability to Polymarket’s domestic launch by year’s end, reflecting intense anticipation. Behind the scenes, the company is in talks with investors to raise fresh capital at a valuation between $12 billion and $15 billion.
Adding a political twist to the unfolding competition, Donald Trump’s Truth Social is set to enter the same arena through a partnership with Crypto.com to launch a platform called Truth Predict. As reported by Cryptopolitan, the project aims to merge sports and political markets.
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