Photo by Nasdaq has on Monday filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to list yes-or-no binary options connected to the Nasdaq 100 and the Nasdaq 100 micro index.
Big U.S. exchanges have been chasing the event prediction markets boom since this stuff first went mainstream during the 2024 U.S. presidential race.
Nasdaq targets Nasdaq 100 binary options in predictions market
In its proposal, Nasdaq says it wants to list binary options on the Nasdaq 100 and the Nasdaq 100 micro index. The contracts are called Outcome-Related Options. They are designed as straight yes-or-no bets on a specific event.
Pricing is simple too. The filing says these options would trade between 1 cent and $1. That price range matches the core point of a binary option. You either get paid based on the outcome or you do not. That is why people call them all-or-nothing options.
The Nasdaq 100 tracks 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on Nasdaq. The list includes names like Apple, Nvidia, and Intel. The micro index is based on 1/100th of the full value of the Nasdaq 100, so it is built to be smaller in size.
Top Nasdaq executives said last week the company planned to stay very focused on the Nasdaq 100 as it starts this prediction markets push. The filing lines up with that plan by putting the Nasdaq 100 and the micro version at the center of the rollout.
US lawmakers attack war wagers on prediction markets amid regulatory uncertainty
The whole prediction markets industry is also getting hit with fresh political heat. Federal lawmakers turned up scrutiny after wagers spread about the fate of Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in the Saturday bombardment of Iran.
Sen. Chris Murphy of Connecticut posted on X, “It’s insane this is legal.” Chris was reacting to a post that highlighted people who made money linked to the invasion. He added, “People around Trump are profiting off war and death. I’m introducing legislation ASAP to ban this.”
Other lawmakers raised similar alarms. Rep. Mike Levin of California wrote on X that “prediction markets cannot be a vehicle for profiting off advance knowledge of military action.” Mike also posted, “We need answers, transparency, and oversight.”
States have spent years passing sports betting laws, and many of them rely on tax revenue from wagers to help balance budgets. Some states now argue that prediction markets are stepping on their turf. The complaint is that these markets are federally regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and often offer betting lines on sporting outcomes, which states say collides with their own regulated sportsbooks.
Kalshi also got dragged into the spotlight. Kalshi said it “doesn’t allow markets directly tied to death” when asked about betting lines tied to whether Khamenei would be out of power. The company said it issued refunds on the market and pointed to rules that bar wagers on death.
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour replied to Chris in a separate post and wrote, “regulated prediction markets are not allowed to do war markets.” Tarek also said, “The market you’re posting is unregulated and offshore.”
Kalshi said, “We included every precaution on this market to make sure people could not trade on the outcome of death.” The company added, “Our rules were clear from the beginning, we never changed them, and we settled based on the rules.” Kalshi also said, “We reimbursed all fees and net losses because we thought the UX could have been clearer for users.”
