Lithium Americas and Trilogy Metals have delivered two of the biggest stock market rallies of the year, after the Trump administration confirmed that it was taking equity positions in both of the Canadian mining companies.
According to data from Yahoo Finance, Lithium Americas has surged 175% in the past nine days after Washington bought 5% of the company and 5% of its Thacker Pass lithium project in Nevada, alongside a $435 million loan from the Department of Energy and a five-year delay on $182 million in debt payments.
Meanwhile, Trilogy Metals’ stock surged even higher, climbing 250% in premarket trading on Tuesday. The White House announced a $35.6 million investment that makes it a 10% shareholder in Trilogy, part of a deal to develop copper and other critical minerals in the Ambler mining district in Alaska. At 1:09 p.m. London time (8:09 a.m. ET), the stock was still up 248%.
Analysts downgrade as Trump deals shake valuations
Not every analyst is impressed with the rally. Ben Isaacson, an analyst at Scotiabank, downgraded Lithium Americas from sector perform to sector underperform. In his note, Ben wrote: “Simply put, we failed to appreciate how a heated bull market would interpret Trump’s magic touch, on a thematic commodity starving for attention. Of course, this is despite the magic touch being dilutive to shareholders.”
Ben also advised clients to take profits and “reload at lower levels.” He is one of four analysts who cut ratings on the stock after the deal was unveiled. Still, traders have ignored the warnings. Even after a 6.5% drop on Monday, Lithium Americas is trading near a two-year high and remains more than 40% above its average analyst target.
The structure of the deal leaves current shareholders holding less, as Washington’s 5% stake is dilutive. The debt deal also adds weight to the company’s future obligations. Investors are betting that the presence of Trump is enough to outweigh those concerns, even as valuations move far beyond analyst models.
White House backs Alaska copper, rejects Greenland rare earths
While Trilogy Metals is celebrating new permits and investment, not every miner is on Washington’s list. The company itself said the Ambler mining district is “home to some of the world’s richest known copper-dominant polymetallic deposits.”
The decision by Trump’s administration to grant permits in Alaska signals its commitment to building U.S. supply lines for copper, a metal considered vital for energy and technology industries.
But Critical Metals Corp. saw a different outcome. After Reuters reported last week that the administration was weighing a stake in the company, which has rights to Greenland’s largest rare earths project, its shares jumped more than 70%.
The excitement grew when the company announced a new institutional investor. Yet on Monday, a White House official said no such deal was being considered, even though the government has received hundreds of equity proposals. Following that statement, Critical Metals shares pulled back and trading was halted for volatility.
The push into North American miners comes against a backdrop of heavy reliance on China. Beijing controls nearly 70% of global rare earth production and processes almost 90%, often importing from abroad before refining and selling to global markets.
Western governments have described this grip as a strategic challenge, especially with demand for critical minerals expected to surge during the global shift to clean energy.
