Geopolitical Standoff: Kenya-China trade deal stalled amid U.S. pressure

Plans for a sweeping trade pact between Kenya and China have ground to a halt after Washington raised objections, leaving the East African nation stuck between two rival powers.

The arrangement would wipe out tariffs on farm goods Kenya ships to China. Officials say the deal needs sign-off from the cabinet, lawmakers, and President William Ruto. But sources say the approval process stopped after the United States voiced concerns.

Jobs and Exports on the Line

Kenya is in a difficult situation because of the timing. On September 30, 2025, the African Growth and Opportunity Act, which allowed Kenyan goods to enter the United States duty-free for 25 years, expired. A long-term successor has not been authorized by Congress.

As a result, apparel producers are now subject to levies of up to 28%. Kenya exports clothing to the United States valued at over $600 million annually. The Kenya Association of Manufacturers says more than 66,000 workers could lose their jobs if the situation drags on. Most work in textile plants or on farms.

Kenya saw the China agreement as a safety net. Beijing promised to drop tariffs on tea, coffee, and avocados shipped from Kenya.

Caught Between Two Giants

American officials have told Nairobi that signing a full trade deal with China might hurt Kenya’s chances of joining the Strategic Trade and Investment Partnership, a US-backed program still taking shape. Kenya must now pick sides between Washington, its old security ally, and Beijing, which holds more of Kenya’s debt than any other country.

Bigger Picture Shows Easing Tensions

Even as Kenya faces pressure, the United States and China appear to be cooling their own trade fight. Officials from both countries met recently in Malaysia and agreed to pause extremely high tariffs. Washington expects China to buy large amounts of American soybeans to balance trade flows.

Kenya’s government says it hopes for a temporary extension of the old American trade program. But the current freeze shows how hard it is for smaller nations to manage ties with competing superpowers.