Kamala Harris just took a hit where it hurts—the odds. Right now, crypto betting platform Polymarket shows that both her and Trump are neck and neck with a 48% chance of winning.
Kamala had been riding high for a bit, but this latest development shows she’s lost her grip. Trump’s VP JD Vance had claimed his internal data showed Kamala’s support rate has “stabilized.”
What it does to crypto
Let’s talk about the elephant in the room: crypto. Kamala has been pretty cautious about cryptocurrency, which isn’t sitting well with the market.
Unlike Trump, who’s now apparently a cheerleader for crypto, Kamala’s careful approach is causing some serious anxiety.
Ever since her odds started climbing, Bitcoin’s been stuck in a rut, a tight consolidation. The market’s nervous, and for good reason.
Analysts over at Bernstein have been watching the situation closely. Their take? Bitcoin’s not going anywhere until we get a clearer picture of who’s likely to take the White House.
That means we might not see much movement until the presidential debates roll around in September. Kamala is part of the Biden administration, and we all know how that’s been for crypto.
The approach they’ve taken over the last four years is likely to continue if Kamala wins. That’s not great news if you’re hoping for a more crypto-friendly environment.
Sure, Kamala might tweak some policies to compete with Trump’s pro-crypto approach, but perhaps don’t expect anything radical?
Hopes for bipartisan regulation
Now, not everyone’s losing hope. Some folks in the crypto industry are cautiously optimistic. They think a Kamala presidency could actually bring some bipartisan agreement on how to regulate digital assets in the States.
People like Mark Cuban have even suggested that Kamala could be “far more open to business, artificial intelligence, crypto, and government as a service” compared to Biden.
That’s a nice thought, but it’s all just speculation until we see some real policies on the table. But the polling data also shows another interesting picture when you break it down.
There’s a clear gender divide. Kamala leads among women, while Trump has a strong advantage with men. The Times/Siena poll, for example, showed Kamala leading by 21 points among women (56% to 35%), but trailing by 14 points among men (39% to 52%).
Then there’s the racial divide. Kamala has solid support among Black voters, which isn’t surprising, given the historical voting patterns. Trump, on the other hand, is pulling in more support from white voters.
In battleground states, Kamala is still leading, but the margins are tight. The New York Times/Siena College poll from early August showed Kamala leading Trump 50% to 46% in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
But with a margin of error around 4.8 points in Michigan and just over 4 points in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, things could easily swing the other way. Kamala might have the edge in these states, but it’s far from a sure thing.
