Trump Jr. could cash in big as Kalshi targets $40B amid ethics scrutiny

Donald Trump Jr. stands to make a large profit from his share in the prediction market company Kalshi, but the deal is already drawing heavy criticism over possible conflicts of interest.

Trump Jr. received roughly $300,000 in Kalshi equity after he signed on as a strategic adviser on January 13, 2025.

Just two months after his father returned to the White House, he had publicly praised how well Kalshi predicted the 2024 election.

In a post on X, he wrote that “while biased outlets called the race a coin toss, my family and close friends used prediction market @Kalshi to know we had won hours ahead of the fake news media,” and added, “I immediately knew I had to contribute to their mission.”

The company gave the shares to the president’s oldest son when it was worth less than $2 billion. He put none of his own money into the firm.

By mid-2026, the fast-growing company is getting ready for a possible public listing and has brought on former Trump administration officials to fill out its leadership.

Kalshi is also in talks to raise money at a value of about $40 billion as early as the third quarter of this year, less than a year after hitting a $22 billion value in an earlier round.

Over the past 18 months, the company has issued additional shares, which have reduced his holding, but the increase in value still gives him a sizable financial gain.

Due to the president’s administration’s laissez-faire approach to regulation and the president’s family’s business and consulting connections in the region, the arrangement has sparked concerns.

Similar to stock exchanges, prediction markets allow users to purchase and sell contracts based on their predictions about the future. These platforms, which formerly concentrated on economic data, also provide political betting.

A study estimates that over $200 million has been bet on political and governmental events, including congressional votes, Supreme Court rulings, and government appointments.

Critics warn about the risk of corruption

Betting pools associated with the First Family, according to critics, encourage corruption.

If officials knew in advance of a congressional vote or a troop movement, their compensation could triple, and the reward for disclosing secrets increases.

Insiders close to the Oval Office may place large, concealed bets right before the president announces a major action.

The markets also benefit from Trump’s unpredictable nature. “Trump is the guy. He makes the market possible,” said Kwok Ping Tsang, a Virginia Tech economist who studies the field. “He’s so unpredictable.”

Trump Jr.’s reach extends further. His venture business, 1789 Capital, made an estimated double-digit million-dollar investment in Polymarket, Kalshi’s primary competitor, in August 2025, and he joined its advisory board.

This affords him roles and money on the two largest such platforms in the country. Polymarket has approximately $90 million in political wagers, whereas Kalshi has more than $129 million.

The family’s reach expanded once more when Trump Media & Technology Group launched “Truth Predict,” its own platform constructed with Crypto.com.

Federal support meets state pushback

The growth comes alongside strong federal support. Before the election, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission had tried to stop Kalshi’s contracts on congressional races.

Kalshi won the case just before election day, and the CFTC dropped its appeal in May 2025. Two months later, the CFTC and the Justice Department ended a probe into whether Polymarket had taken illegal bets from Americans.

Whether these contracts are legitimate financial goods or illicit gambling is the main legal dispute.

A number of states plan to shut down the websites after classifying them as gambling. Michael Selig, the chairman of the CFTC and a proponent of federal regulations over state restrictions, was chosen by Trump.

President Trump defended the platforms and called many of their detractors “scum” on social media last month.

Rival exchange CME Group has sued the CFTC over Kalshi’s license, citing the Trump family’s ties. Kalshi’s IPO plans do not include any crypto tokens, implying that the company prefers to appear traditional.

The complete details will be revealed in subsequent SEC filings.