Kalshi targets $40 billion valuation in new funding round as prediction markets reshape derivatives trading

Kalshi, a prediction market platform, is in talks for a new capital raise that could bring its valuation to about $40 billion, according to the Financial Times. The new round could be completed as soon as Q3 2026 and would nearly double the valuation of the platform from its $1 billion Series F in just seven weeks. 

The fundraising comes at a time when companies that are adjacent to crypto have been pulling back from the public markets. Bitcoin is down approximately a third of its value since the beginning of the year (trading near $60,000 as of the time of writing).

Additionally, Bitcoin ETFs have had over $3.1 billion in net outflows so far in 2026, according to Reuters. Kraken, Consensys, and Ledger all have delayed or shelved initial public offering plans. Given this context, Kalshi’s ability to raise funds at a much more rapid rate than it has previously raised funds is remarkable.

Why investors keep writing checks for Kalshi

Institutional investors are drawn to Kalshi because of their rapid rate of growth as well as its regulation by the CFTC. According to the company’s disclosure, by April of 2025, Kalshi’s annualized trading volume had increased over 32 times to $178 billion from their performance just one year prior.

Kalshi’s monthly trading volume reached $16.81 billion on their platform for May 2026. Within the same time frame, institutional trading volume has increased by 800%; Coatue, Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, Morgan Stanley, and ARK Invest participated in the May round.

As of June 2026, Kalshi’s annualized revenue is at $2 billion already or nearly three times its value in November of 2025, as reported by Cryptopolitan. Sports event contracts are Kalshi’s leading driver of revenue, especially for the NBA playoffs and the FIFA World Cup.

During the first week of the World Cup tournament, Kalshi’s total volume was $5.1 billion, or the largest weekly amount ever for a single prediction marketplace.

Kalshi has now also branched out to offer more than binary event contracts. Crypto perpetual futures are now regulated by the CFTC and have reached $5.5 billion in volume through their first two weeks after launch on June 3, according to Cryptopolitan. As stated by CEO Tarek Mansour, perpetual futures will be Kalshi’s quickest vehicle for customer acquisition.

“Event contracts could become a trillion-dollar market, and we’re still in the early stages of that transition,” Mansour said when announcing the Series F in May.

Regulatory battles add risk to the growth story

The fundraiser comes with a significant caveat. More than a dozen U.S. states have filed suits against Kalshi and rival Polymarket, alleging the platforms operate unlicensed sports betting operations.

Kentucky’s attorney general sued Kalshi, Polymarket, and VGW on June 17, claiming that nearly 89% of Kalshi’s trading activity was tied to sports betting and that the company generated over $23 billion in contract trading volume from it in 2025, according to Cryptopolitan.

Illinois passed a law requiring prediction market operators to obtain a state license, prompting Kalshi to file a federal lawsuit arguing the CFTC holds exclusive jurisdiction over its exchange-traded derivatives. The CFTC itself has sued nine states to block enforcement actions against federally registered contract markets.

“States cannot circumvent the clear directive of Congress,” CFTC Chairman Michael Selig said in one of those filings, according to Cryptopolitan. “If you interfere with the operation of federal law in regulating financial markets, we will sue you.”

The jurisdictional question is widely expected to reach the Supreme Court. Some industry estimates place sports contracts at up to 90% of Kalshi’s revenue, meaning an adverse ruling could threaten the company’s core business at the same valuation investors are now endorsing.

What this means for crypto markets

While Kalshi is not a traditional crypto company, its growth and development are indicative of how the broader digital currency market will evolve in the future. Kalshi’s platform allows users to trade crypto perpetual futures, which, while being a well-established product type in offshore markets for many years, has not been available through an exchange regulated by the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) until now.

Should Kalshi’s perpetual futures become popular enough to capture significant volumes, this will create a new pathway for U.S. trading – through established compliance frameworks rather than offshore, where there are currently limited viable alternatives for institutional investors.

This growth in Kalshi’s popularity will also have significant implications for the overall digital currency marketplace. BitGo was the only crypto IPO in the U.S. during 2020 (the company’s share price was reported as being approximately 36% less than the offering price as of mid-May 2021).

The capital that otherwise would have gone into developing new infrastructure in the crypto space has now shifted to other types of companies, such as Kalshi, which combines a combination of fintech, sports betting, and derivatives in terms of investment product types.

Mansour stated that he supports regulations (“I am all for regulations”) and that Kalshi utilized a “regulatory first” approach from its inception. Whether Kalshi’s approach ultimately holds up in court will determine whether the company’s valuation of $40 billion will prove to be forward-looking or optimistic.

Kalshi’s potential success in fundraising may fall very far apart from other crypto firms due to the drought experienced by all crypto firms regarding available capital. BitGo was the only cryptocurrency company to go public in the U.S. through an IPO this year, and its shares are trading approximately 36% less than what they were initially offered at the mid-way point of May, he said.

Investor funds have shifted away from funding crypto infrastructure to support platforms like Kalshi, which are focused on sports betting, fintech, or derivatives.