In a decisive turn in the protracted legal saga between Ripple and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), all charges against Ripple’s executives have recently been dropped, signaling a shift in the case’s dynamics. Attorney Jeremy Hogan, known for his astute legal analyses, shared his insights on an X thread, emphasizing that the patient is reaching its conclusion for all practical purposes.
Hogan stressed that the remaining hearings need more room for surprises. The facts are established, and no groundbreaking revelations are expected. Consequently, the focus now shifts to the court’s final judgment, likely to be pronounced next year, impacting primarily Ripple.
Besides the imminent judgment, there’s substantial speculation about a possible settlement. Hogan explained that while both parties, the SEC and Ripple, reserve the right to appeal, the odds lean heavily in Ripple’s favor. Specifically, the SEC faces a slim 14.2% chance of winning an appeal, given the trial judge’s fact-intensive opinion, which hardly favors the Commission’s stance.
The implications of an SEC appeal victory in 2025 also found space in Hogan’s discussion. He outlined that success for the SEC would necessitate returning the case for additional judicial scrutiny, owing to the nature of the initial order. This process isn’t just about a simple win; it demands navigating through further hearings and potentially another round of appeals.
Hogan also delved into the uncertain territories of the case, such as the judge’s silence on “other distributions” of XRP. If these issues arise again, Hogan sees the most probable resolution being a ruling that benefits Ripple. Additionally, the complexity extends to programmatic sales, potentially requiring more judicial deliberation if the Appellate Court finds the trial court’s determinations lacking.
The attorney’s analysis suggests a Herculean effort is required for an SEC victory. It involves refusing a settlement, triumphing in an appeal against the odds, enduring more legal proceedings, and coming out on top in a subsequent appeal. However, Hogan didn’t factor in unpredictable elements like Congressional acts or political shifts, which could further skew the odds.
Hogan’s perspective mirrors the internal sentiment within the SEC itself, where key members reportedly concur with Ripple’s eventual triumph. This acknowledgment and Hogan’s detailed assessment underscores a near-conclusive atmosphere surrounding the case.