CryptoQuantAn analyst from on-chain intelligence firm, CryptoQuant warns the crypto market might be entering the late stages of its current bull cycle.
CryptoQuant contributor Crypto Dan said in a Jan. 6 post that the current bull cycle, which started in January 2023, will likely reach a cyclical peak by the first quarter of 2025, or the second quarter at the latest.
“With a substantial influx of new investments as well as additional funds from existing investors, it is reasonable to expect that the market is now in the latter stages of this cycle,” the contributor wrote in the post.
Bitcoin experiences a surge in short-term activity: CryptoQuant
To back his thesis, the contributor noted a 36% spike in the percentage of Bitcoin traded for less than one month. In the past, this pattern signaled crypto market tops, according to the post. Crypto Dan added that this metric could keep climbing and potentially increase by two to four times before a decrease at the start of the next bear cycle.
With the expectation that the percentage of Bitcoin traded for less than one month will continue to rise, the CryptoQuant contributor believes that “expectations for substantial gains in both Bitcoin and altcoins should still be kept open.”
However, he advises caution.
This prediction of a crypto market correction around the first or second quarters of 2025 coincides with the bearish forecast shared by BitMEX founder, Arthur Hayes. In a recent blog post, he warned that US dollar liquidity could decrease and the euphoria around Donald Trump’s re-election might start to fade. In that scenario, he expects some strain on Bitcoin’s price and the broader crypto market.
“Sasa” is an essay where I explain y I think #crypto tops out in mid-Mar and then severely corrects. Until then is time to dance. https://t.co/Apt124sOjp pic.twitter.com/LKQ24GMtpq
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) January 6, 2025
Others believe 2025 will be crypto’s best year
Crypto Dan’s forecast contrasts with bullish projections for the crypto market from different outlets.
Steno Research analysts estimate that 2025 will be the most profitable year for cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin and Ethereum reaching new all-time highs.
Similarly, asset management firm VanEck expects a medium-level peak in early 2025, followed by a robust push to new highs by the end of the year. Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of digital assets, predicts Bitcoin will reach $180,000 and forecasts that Ethereum will touch $6,000 this year.
Traders on prediction platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi are also optimistic, predicting record-breaking Bitcoin and Ethereum prices this year. Additionally, the bettors also predict major regulatory progress, such as the approval of new cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and the development of a US Bitcoin reserve.
Regulations have previously impacted market price and volume. As more approvals are expected in 2025, regulatory measures will likely encourage more investors to enter into the crypto space.
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