Crypto trades are surprisingly certain amid the US, Israel, Iran war

Over the weekend, crypto markets were unusually “unrattled” despite geopolitical tensions buoyed by the United States launching direct airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. The development spells a continuation of the Israel-Iran conflict, and has featured in several crypto social media discussions, according to blockchain intelligence firm Santiment.

President Donald Trump confirmed on Saturday night that the US military had targeted and destroyed three Iranian nuclear sites. 

In his Truth Social statement, the POTUS told Americans the mission was “successful” and warned that any subsequent actions could be “far greater” if Iran chose to respond. 

Crypto market reacts to US attacks with steady hands

In the hours following the news, Santiment’s analytics platform recorded a surge in social media references to “Iran.” On June 21, references to the term made up over 9% of all crypto-related discussions across platforms such as X, Reddit, Telegram, and 4Chan. 

🤯 With all of the real world concern and uncertainty in crypto now, the price swings for this upcoming week should be simple:

🟦 Retail calls for "lower" or "below" = price goes UP
🟥 Retail calls for "higher" or "above" = price goes DOWN

🔗 Chart: https://t.co/5qMBqOZ8Un pic.twitter.com/z10jA3YEL5

— Santiment Intelligence (@SantimentData) June 23, 2025

Over 40,000 US troops are stationed across the region, and fears of retaliation are now more profound. Analysts have hinted at the possibility of cyberattacks, oil supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, and asymmetric responses through allied proxy forces. Despite this, markets have so far responded with caution rather than panic.

The Israel-Iran keyword is at an all-time high social dominance, correlating directly with the timing of US strikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.

Santiment’s data shows that social mentions of bearish language, such as “lower” and “below,” went up at the time of the airstrikes. The chatter coincided with Bitcoin’s price dipping to around $98,200, followed by a strong bounce back above $100,000.

A previous drop to $98,000 had started short-term bearish sentiment. However, according to CryptoQuant, no major red flags were visible in on-chain indicators. Bitcoin has since stabilized, fluctuating between $100,000 and $102,000. Market participants may be viewing the geopolitical shock as temporary or already priced in.

Consolidation, not capitulation

According to market analyst Michael van de Poppe, Bitcoin’s price drop was a classic liquidity sweep. In his analysis, Bitcoin fell beneath a low at $100,500, found liquidity, and corrected back up $101,000. He predicted that if the $102,500 mark is broken, the upward move would accelerate and end the short-term correction.

On-chain data from CryptoQuant shows Binary Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) 30-day moving average, often used to gauge long-term holder activity, peaked at 0.6 before beginning to decline, below the 0.8 threshold associated with overheated markets. 

One contributor on the platform explained that the largest coin by market cap is in a phase of consolidation rather than capitulation. Long-term investors are still holding onto their positions. Still, Polymarket predictions see a 42% probability to BTC dipping below $95,000 this month,

Santiment’s social chart data also illustrates the inverse relationship between crowd sentiment and price movements. A spike in “FUD” (fear, uncertainty, and doubt) talk was recorded when BTC hovered around $98,200. Shortly afterward, the price moved opposite to retail trader expectations.

“Everything before the next all-time high is a dip,” remarked Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao on X.

The second-ranking crypto by market cap has struggled getting back to its 12 month high of $4,007, down more than 45% since the December bull run. At the time of this publication, Ether is changing hands at around $2,200 after failing several times to move past the $2,300 mark during Monday’s early Asian trading hours.