Daily confirmed Bitcoin payments fell to a yearly low on December 26, a pattern typical of the holiday season’s market illiquidity. Blockchain.com data revealed that confirmed Bitcoin transactions sank to 623,434, the lowest point in 2024.
Confirmed BTC payments are transactions successfully added to the blockchain, making them immutable. The metric is often used to gauge activity and reflect on investor engagement levels within the Bitcoin network.
The December 26 figures mark a stark contrast to December 17, when Bitcoin’s all-time high price of $108,000 prompted over 857,000 confirmed payments, 37% more than the recent low.
Bitcoin chart patterns and analyst insights
Looking at Blockchain.com’s chart, Bitcoin payments’ highs and lows this month typically followed the trend of the crypto’s price. Payments peaked when BTC hit its all-time high value of $108,000 around December 17 and 18 but fell when the price retreated downwards to lows of $94,000.
In the last 30 days, the highest number of BTC recipients was seen at the end of November, clocking almost 1.2 million. At the time, the largest crypto by market cap was changing hands at around $96,000, and it seemed that the market had a lot of FOMO as investors were anticipating the coin could reach $100,000 soon.
Given the low tally in payments, crypto enthusiasts could be stocking up on BTC, hoping it will surge even higher than the November-December price rally.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s social sentiment has declined, with the ratio of positive to negative comments dropping to 4:5, the lowest sentiment level of the year. Despite BTC maintaining a price above $95,000, retail traders have expressed heightened pessimism.
Contrarian analysts suggest such periods of fear could precede a price rally, as markets often move opposite to retail sentiment.
Bullish scenarios for 2025
Bitcoin, which peaked at $108,000 on December 17, has since dropped over 10%, currently trading around $97,150. Some analysts believe the cryptocurrency may recover above $100,000, citing historical patterns that hint at a potential rebound.
Elja Boom, a prominent crypto analyst, highlighted fractal patterns on the chart that suggest upward momentum. However, contrasting views from Rekt Capital indicate the current correction could persist for another week, drawing parallels to similar scenarios in 2017 and 2021.
On December 26, market technician Aksel Kibar shared an analysis on X, outlining Bitcoin’s potential price targets and warning of a possible head-and-shoulders (H&S) pattern, a classic indicator of an uptrend reversal.
According to Kibar, Bitcoin’s failure to reclaim the $100,000 support level has opened downside targets ranging from $90,000 to the mid-$60,000 range.
If the pattern acts as a H&S top, the price target is at 80K. This can be the pullback to the broadening pattern that completed with a breakout above 73.7K. $BTCUSD https://t.co/aWeNdWVkMz pic.twitter.com/QbGi08AfcH
— Aksel Kibar, CMT (@TechCharts) December 26, 2024
Kibar’s analysis focused on the likelihood of a short-term H&S top forming within Bitcoin’s broader market structure. He explained that if the pattern fully develops, the price could drop to $80,000. This potential decline aligns with a pullback to Bitcoin’s broadening chart pattern breakout, which occurred above $73,700.
In his X post, Kibar noted, “Breakout from the broadening chart pattern that completed on $BTCUSD… the pullback can take place with a possible short-term H&S top. (IF) the right shoulder becomes better defined…”
Further analysis by Kibar outlined how low BTC could fall under this scenario. However, he emphasized that market responses suggest a less severe correction than the H&S pattern might imply. This, in turn, bolsters his position on the possibility of a moderate pullback rather than a steep decline.
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