Can BTC options expiry push the coin back to $100,000?

Bitcoin (BTC) dropped under the $102,000 level, once again raising questions about the short-term direction of the rally. Friday’s weekly options expiry event may be the main factor for price turbulence. 

Bitcoin (BTC) is preparing for another options expiry event, which may define trading on Thursday and Friday. BTC sank under $102,000 briefly, later recovering to $102,115. BTC is currently trading close to the maximum pain for options holders, at the $100,000 level.

This week’s options expiry event indicates more bullish confidence compared to other options expirations. The put/call ratio is bullish for both BTC and ETH, but it shows some caution regarding potential price drops.

Traders have a lot riding on Friday’s expiry event

Options events are closely watched, as BTC is still determining its direction and the potential to move to a new all-time high.

🚨 Options Expiry Alert 🚨

Tomorrow 08:00 UTC: Over $3.1B in BTC & ETH options expire on Deribit.$BTC: $2.66B notional | Put/Call: 0.99 | Max Pain: $100K
$ETH: $525M notional | Put/Call: 1.24 | Max Pain: $2,200

BTC skew is neutral, ETH puts slightly outweigh calls. Price… pic.twitter.com/jBj4C4tMvX

— Deribit (@DeribitOfficial) May 15, 2025

Deribit commented that Friday’s options expiry may produce unpredictable price action. Deribit carries over $30B in options open interest. The current open interest shows a growth trend of options trading, as the current open interest surpasses even the levels of monthly expiry events. 

BTC open interest remains high above $30B, but traders are becoming more cautious. The crypto fear and greed index is still hanging on at 70 points, indicating ‘greed’, though some traders are trying to protect their positions against a price drop.

BTC traders are cautiously going long, with very slight dominance of long positions. 

BTC price threatens long liquidations

The current price downturn is attacking the accumulation of long positions. At a price of $101,456.40, traders have accumulated $48.3M in long positions, currently in almost immediate danger. The positions may either close or be liquidated within a short time frame. 

However, the bigger risk is a break below $101,000, where liquidations may reach up to $996M. The actual availability of liquidity may shift, as traders close their positions. A price sweep to liquidate remaining long positions is still possible. 

Another potential scenario is a climb above $103,000, where short positions are accumulating. A short squeeze may lead BTC to its higher price range, avoiding the maximum pain of options expiry. 

BTC is also expected to reject the higher price levels and sink as low as $99,000 before reclaiming a higher level. Based on liquidation levels, the biggest accumulation of short positions is just under $105,000, awaiting rejection, with some accumulation below the $106,000 level.

BTC still sees increased spot demand, accumulation by funds and retained block rewards in the wallets of miners. In the short term, the price direction may shift more actively. 

The dominance of BTC fell to 59.4%, down from a recent high above 61%. BTC is still the leading asset, outperforming all other altcoins. ETH recovered only slightly to 0.025 BTC, though suffering from similar levels of volatility. 

Ahead of the options expiry, ETH traded at $2,525.68, once again revealing its rally above $2,700 was short-lived. ETH is farther from its maximum pain level of $2,200 on the options market, but may still face pressure to go lower.