Bitcoin usually has a rough time in September. Since 2009, the crypto diva has dropped about 4% on average during this month.
In six of the last seven years, the bears have taken the reins in September. So it’s no wonder people are cautious about Bitcoin’s short-term outlook right now.
Not the traders on Bitfinex, though. No, they seem to be betting on a different outcome this time around. Since August 28, the number of Bitcoin margin longs on Bitfinex has jumped by 3,000 BTC.
This brings the total to nearly 64,350 BTC. Adding to the mix, the annualized interest rate on these borrowed funds has shot up to over 20% in just the last 10 hours.
Earlier today, Bitcoin traded close to $59,000 on September 3 after a surprising 3.2% daily gain. This bump came after the usual “red” September kicked off in a pretty standard fashion, with prices dipping.
“So consensus is: September Bad, Q4 Good. What if: September insanely good, Q4 more chop/bleed. Now that would be pretty typical for this cycle,” tweeted analyst Daan. See his chart below:
Meanwhile, QCP has warned that gold could join crypto in heading down until October. The company said that:
“September is typically a bearish month not just for crypto but across all asset classes (with bonds lower in 8 out of the last 10 Septembers and Gold lower every year since 2017).”
If history is any guide, October might offer some relief. As QCP puts it, the month has an incredibly strong bullish seasonality, with positive returns and an average gain of 22.9% in 8 out of the last 9.
But not everyone thinks history is repeating itself. Some see the current slow market as the calm before a storm. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe described it as a “dull market, which is usually the end stage before the party begins.”
In his view as you can see in the chart above, Bitcoin needs to break above $61,000 to regain upward momentum. Only time will tell. For now, all eyes are on the charts, and the whales are on the move.
