October will be Bitcoin’s breakout month, not September

Forget September. If you’re expecting Bitcoin to make a splash, you’ve picked the wrong month. September has a track record, and it isn’t pretty. Across all asset classes, not just crypto, September tends to be bearish.

Look at the data: bonds have dropped in eight out of the last ten Septembers. Gold? Down every year since 2017. So, it’s no surprise Bitcoin also struggles to find its footing during this month. 

October, on the other hand is a different story entirely. Bitcoin shows a whole new side when October comes around, clocking an average gain of 22.9% in eight of the last nine Octobers.

The month has this thing, a bullish seasonality that makes traders sit up and pay attention. The trend is so strong that people are already making their moves. Just look at the options market. The Asia morning desk reported another 150x 80k December calls bought.

Now, let’s address the elephant in the room. 

Bitcoin has been pretty boring lately. No big movements, just stuck in this range for over six months. Why? The answer might lie in the type of trade going on. 

There’s been a change from exchange-based trading to over-the-counter (OTC) trading. Less action on the exchanges means less price volatility. It’s like the market’s on mute.

To really get why this matters, you’ve got to dig into some nerdy stuff—UTXOs, or Unspent Transaction Outputs. Think of them as the change you get when you pay for something with Bitcoin.

By looking at how long these UTXOs have been sitting around, you can tell what kind of investors are in the game. If they’ve been holding for less than six months, they’re newbies.

And what do we know about newbies? They’re either jumping in when Bitcoin looks hot or bailing when it gets too quiet.

Right now, there’s been a slight uptick in these new UTXOs. This happened around March when Bitcoin’s price peaked. Since then, many of these new investors have likely exited the market, probably because they’re losing interest or, let’s be real, losing money.

OR, they’re still holding on, crossing that six-month mark, and moving into the long-term group.

Something similar happened back in 2019 around the halving. It took Bitcoin about 490 days from that point to hit a new all-time high. And let’s not forget the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The market was a disaster, but the pattern was there. 

If history is any guide, we might be in for a repeat. But keep your expectations in check—no one’s got a crystal ball here.