LIVE: Bitcoin’s will-it-won’t-it rally fails again as global stocks remain mixed

Crypto-linked stocks traded mixed as major names tied to exchanges, payments, mining, and Bitcoin treasury plays moved in different directions.

MercadoLibre rose 1.44% to $1,835.22. Robinhood Markets gained 1.4% to $84.71, while Coinbase Global added 0.93% to $199.77.

Strategy slipped 0.84% to $171.02. PayPal Holdings rose 1.47% to $50.48, and Block gained 2.43% to $71.63.

Circle Internet Group fell 0.35% to $99.66. Galaxy Digital Holdings dropped 1.05% to $26.00, while GameStop dipped 0.24% to $24.95.

Crypto miners were uneven. IREN lost 2.65%, TeraWulf fell 1.77%, Cipher Digital dropped 2.62%, and Hut 8 slid 2.41%.

Some miners still gained. Riot Platforms rose 2.2%, CleanSpark jumped 4.33%, Bitfarms added 1.24%, and Bit Digital climbed 2.53%.

The weakest moves came from smaller crypto-linked names. Genius Group fell 11.2%, Argo Blockchain dropped 9.8%, Nano Labs lost 8.3%, Sol Strategies fell 6.99%, and Bitcoin Group SE declined 6.94%.

The strongest gainers included Prenetics, up 4.74%, Fold Holdings, up 4.11%, Exodus Movement, up 2.5%, and Canaan, up 2.42%.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite closed at record highs on Friday after traders got a clearer sign that U.S.-Iran peace talks could soon happen in Pakistan.

The S&P 500 rose 0.8% to 7,165.08. The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.63% to 24,836.60. Both indexes also touched fresh intraday records.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 79.61 points, or 0.16%, to close at 49,230.71.

Investors were watching Iran’s foreign minister travel to Islamabad, with hopes that stalled talks between the U.S. and Iran could move forward.

Emmanuel Cau, head of European equity strategy at Barclays, said Trump’s push for an off-ramp could keep markets leaning toward de-escalation.

Emmanuel also said a steady start to earnings season may support equities for now, but a stronger rally would likely need a clear breakthrough in talks.

Retail traders also took profits in Intel after the stock jumped on stronger earnings.

VandaTrack said small investors have bought a net $2.6B of Intel shares since Sept. 1. The firm said the average retail stake is up about 90% since then.

Retail investors sold more than $18M of Intel during Friday’s rally, after the stock climbed to an intraday high on better-than-expected earnings.

Baker Hughes is building its financial outlook around the risk that the Strait of Hormuz may stay partly shut for months.

Ahmed Moghal, the company’s chief financial officer, told investors on Friday that Baker expects the U.S.-Iran conflict to run through the end of June.

Ahmed said the strait may not return to full operations until the second half of the year. He added that the length and depth of the conflict remain highly uncertain.

The company has large Middle East exposure, so its assumptions carry weight across the energy market.

A Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas survey of nearly 100 oil and gas executives showed similar concern. Nearly 80% said they do not expect the strait to reopen before August or later.

More than 80% also said future disruption in the strait is somewhat or very likely.

Lorenzo Simonelli, Baker Hughes’ chief executive, said geopolitical risk has become a lasting factor for oil and gas markets after the Iran war.

Lorenzo said the strait closure has affected 10% of global oil volumes and taken 20% of global LNG supply offline. He said that could keep risk premiums in oil and LNG prices.

Oil prices split on Friday as the United States and Iran prepared for direct talks in Pakistan. Brent crude closed almost flat at $105.33 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate fell more than 1% to $94.40.

Steve Witkoff, the U.S. special envoy, and Jared Kushner will travel to Pakistan on Saturday morning to meet Iranian officials directly, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed Friday.

Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister, said he would also visit Islamabad, Muscat, and Moscow to discuss bilateral issues and regional developments with Iran’s partners.

Trump said Thursday that Israel and Lebanon agreed to extend their truce by three weeks after talks at the White House with senior U.S. officials. The pause was first meant to run for 10 days, but the extension gives negotiators more time.

Washington also said it would support efforts to strengthen Lebanon’s defenses against Hezbollah.

The U.S.-Iran ceasefire has held, but the conflict is now centered on naval blockades that have kept the Strait of Hormuz shut. Both sides are using economic pressure as they seek better terms in any deal.

Before the war, about 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum products moved through the strait each day.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia said the longer the waterway stays closed, the bigger the economic cost becomes. Its analysts said they expect the U.S. to step back first because of rising political and economic pressure, while warning that a major military escalation could push the U.S. dollar sharply higher.

Sarah Breeden, the Bank of England’s deputy governor for financial stability, warned that global stocks may be priced too high while major risks are still hanging over markets.

Sarah told the BBC that share prices are sitting near record levels even though macro risks have not been fully priced in.

She said markets could face an adjustment later. Sarah also pointed to the risk of several shocks hitting at once, including a major macro event, stress in private credit, and a reset in expensive AI-linked valuations.

Global stocks have been wobbly and kind of split since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran in late February. Even with that volatility, several developed markets are still close to records.

In New York, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite closed at fresh all-time highs on Wednesday after global stocks recovered from losses tied to the Iran war.

The MSCI World ex-U.S. index, which tracks large and mid-cap stocks across more than 20 developed markets, is up more than 5% this year.

U.S. futures were mixed. S&P 500 futures were up 0.1%, while Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.9%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures dropped 148 points, or 0.3%.

Intel shares jumped 19% after the chipmaker beat Wall Street’s first-quarter earnings expectations and gave a stronger forecast for the current quarter.

The rally still faded late Thursday. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both hit new intraday highs, but finished the session lower.