Bitcoin briefly touched $88,786 on Monday, reaching a two-week high, but the rally is already fading as the market struggles to find direction with weak volume and no real momentum, according to data from CryptoQuant.
Analysts say Bitcoin’s bounce looks like a classic bull trap, not the start of a new uptrend, as prices have been bouncing between $76,000 and $95,000 all month with no clear breakout.
“It’s important for investors to be cautious in this environment: The market remains fragile and can be easily manipulated,” said Kirill Kretov, trading automator at CoinPanel. “Retail activity is low, volume is thin, and even the so-called ‘smart money’ is staying on the sidelines. The players with the real ability to move the market are not doing so — and for good reason.”
Negative funding rate shows traders pulling back
Even with Monday’s price increase, Bitcoin’s funding rate turned negative. This rate shows the difference between spot and futures markets. When futures prices go above spot, the rate stays positive. When it flips negative, it signals that traders aren’t paying to stay long. Instead, they’re either reducing risk or betting against the move. According to CryptoQuant, this is exactly what’s happening now.
The futures market has seen a rise in open interest, but without the usual surge in positive sentiment. These perpetual futures, which don’t expire, are often where traders place short-term directional bets. But this time, there’s no sign of growing confidence.
Borrowing costs in DeFi are also telling the same story, because on Aave, the cost to borrow Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC) dropped to about 4%, a drop that shows a decline in overall investor risk appetite. People aren’t borrowing to bet anymore. The mood is cold.
Kirill said another issue is the dead weight from long-term holders. Many wallets from previous cycles are still holding out for higher prices. “They’re not selling, but they’re not helping the market either,” he said. “Until that happens, relief rallies are dangerous. They can suck in impatient longs only to reverse violently — classic bull traps in a low-liquidity environment.”
Bitcoin’s gains also failed to drag altcoins with it, a sign that confidence isn’t spreading across the board.
Eyes turn to Trump’s tariff deadline and bearish double top
The next big date on the calendar is April 2, when President Donald Trump is expected to roll out another round of tariffs. Augustine, a partner at SignalPlus, said that announcement could set the tone for what comes next. “We expect markets to continue their soft rebound into month-end, with the next major catalyst being the ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcement,” he said. For now, the crypto market is stuck in limbo, waiting for a trigger.
Technical indicators don’t look better. A double top pattern has formed on short-term price charts. This bearish setup is only confirmed if Bitcoin breaks below the neckline support around $86,000. If that happens, traders expect a fast slide toward $75,000. If Bitcoin can stay above $87,500, some bullish momentum could return. But with weak volume and thin liquidity, that scenario is shaky at best.
Solana has its own problem to deal with. The token is showing signs of forming a death cross, where its 50-day moving average falls under the 200-day. That signal has often come before deeper price drops. In mid-April, technical analysts say Solana could be in dangerous territory if it doesn’t reverse soon.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s Combined Market Index (BCMI) is currently sitting just under 0.5, and this metric blends together MVRV, NUPL, SOPR, and the Fear & Greed Index into a weighted signal. The BCMI hasn’t crossed into the overheated zone above 0.75, which usually points to strong greed or market tops. But it also hasn’t dipped into the panic zone below 0.15, where major buy signals tend to appear. That puts the market in a grey area.
Scenario A, according to BCMI readings, is that this might just be a normal correction inside a bull market. That would mean more upside is still possible once the pullback ends. Scenario B is less hopeful as it could mean that the bull cycle has already peaked, and a bear phase is starting earlier than expected.
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