Bitcoin bear market won’t come back for years, Trump adviser David Bailey

David Bailey, CEO of Bitcoin Inc. and a former member of US President Donald Trump’s Bitcoin advisory campaign team, says the Bitcoin market will not see a bear phase for several years.

Bailey, who also heads news publication Bitcoin Magazine, argued that the digital asset will continue its upward market price trend because of institutional demand. Speaking on X on Sunday, he said only a fraction of the world’s largest investors currently hold Bitcoin, leaving the majority of potential demand untapped.

Bullfrogs are known for limitless appetites

— David Bailey🇵🇷 $2.0mm/btc is the floor (@DavidFBailey) August 24, 2025

“Under one percent of institutional investors have exposure to Bitcoin, and for those who do, the allocation is less than one percent,” Bailey wrote. “That means 99.99% of demand is ahead of us. There isn’t even $1 trillion of liquidity for the climb to $1 million per Bitcoin.”

“Every sovereign, bank, insurer, corporate, and pension will own Bitcoin. The process has already begun, and we have not even captured 0.01% of the total addressable market. We’re going so much higher. Dream big,” he added.

We are seeing real institutional buy-in: Bailey

In response to retail traders calling his prediction “impractical,” Bailey surmised that September 2025 institutional activity shows firms are more interested in Bitcoin than before.

YouTuber Ryan, who runs the channel WealthMindBody, was against Bailey’s comments, saying that each market cycle has historically been marked by declarations that the past patterns no longer apply. 

“I’ll believe it when I see it,” Ryan said. “Every cycle, people claim this time is different, but so far price action has matched earlier timelines exactly.”

Bailey countered that the difference lies in institutional participation. 

“This is the first time we’ve seen real institutional buy-in,” he said. When challenged over earlier purchases by companies such as MassMutual, which bought $100 million worth of Bitcoin in 2020, Bailey dismissed them as “outliers with marginal bets,” and that now is the eternal September of institutional adoption.

Analysts warn cycles may not be broken

A June report from venture capital firm Breed suggested that many corporate treasuries holding digital assets may not survive the long term, which could cause the next bear market.

CK Zheng, co-founder and chief investment officer of ZX Squared Capital, said crypto markets are still heavily tied to traditional equities. 

“If stocks slow into a bear market, crypto will follow,” Zheng said, adding that US equities may have narrowly avoided a bear phase earlier this year, but policy moves by the Federal Reserve could reduce the likelihood of a downturn in the immediate term.

“The Fed has pivoted toward lower interest rates. Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech last Friday was one of the clearest signals that cuts may begin in September. That marks the beginning of a lower-rate cycle, given softening economic and labor data.”

Moreover, Pav Hundal, lead analyst at Australian crypto broker Swyftx, believes the recent “risk-on” environment has boosted the flows into Bitcoin and Ethereum.

“The path of least resistance is higher for Bitcoin,” Hundal explained. “But that doesn’t mean a bear market is years away. Macro shocks often come when least expected.” 

He expects reduced volatility as the market matures, but said another round of interest rate increases within the next year could drive the market into a negative correctional phase. Per Cryptopolitan’s market predictions, Bitcoin could reach as high as $160k or drop to $68k by the end of 2025.

Since 2013, every post-halving year produced positive returns in midsummer, with September consistently delivering red months. For instance, in 2017 Bitcoin gained 17.92% in July and 65.32% in August before sliding 7.44% in September.