Bitcoin at $79,000 as global stocks rally along with gold

Bitcoin has pushed back above the True Market Mean at $78.1k, a level that had been flagged last week as the likely near-term ceiling. That move matters because the model tracks the average cost basis of coins that have been actively changing hands.

When Bitcoin gets back above that line, it has often signaled that the market is moving away from the worst phase of a bear cycle and into a more stable setup. In this case, the rebound puts the next key level at the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis of $80.5k.

But the move higher is already running into supply. Investors who bought in the $60k to $70k range are getting closer to breakeven, and that usually brings more selling as people try to get out flat.

That is why the $78k to $80.1k area is shaping up as a tough resistance band in the near term. The closer price gets to that zone, the more likely it is that holders sitting on earlier losses start selling into strength.

Past bear market moves showed a similar pattern. Bitcoin often needed several tries to break through the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis, with price slipping back between attempts.

In those pullbacks, the market has tended to contract toward the minus one standard deviation band near $69.9k. That makes $70k look more and more like a developing mid-term support floor while the market tries to absorb the supply overhead.

Memory chip makers are pulling in huge earnings from the AI boom, but the market is still pricing them far below the biggest names in the wider AI chip trade.

That gap is now driving a bigger fight over whether memory has entered a real supercycle or if this is just another strong run that will fade.

Profit growth estimates show why that debate is getting louder. Samsung Electronics Co. is expected to grow net income by 400% this year. SK Hynix is seen posting growth of nearly 300%. By comparison, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) is expected to grow net income by about 50%.

Even with that, the valuation gap stays wide. Samsung and SK Hynix are trading at less than 6 times forward estimates. TSMC is at 19 times.

In other parts of the market, the gap also shows up. Micron in the U.S. and Japan’s Kioxia are both trading at less than 10 times forward earnings, while Nvidia Corp. sits at 22 times.

Some investors say the discount makes sense. Their view is that memory profits still move in rough cycles and remain tied to swings in the broader economy.

Others say the old pattern no longer explains what is happening now, because AI demand is pushing memory consumption to levels the industry has not seen before.

That argument has only grown stronger because these stocks have already run hard. Since the end of August, Samsung shares have tripled. SK Hynix shares have quadrupled. TSMC, while still higher, has gained 77%, which is well behind those two moves.

The demand wave has also spread beyond high-bandwidth memory. It is now lifting DRAM, flash, and other memory products too.

That has tightened supply and pushed prices higher, while chipmakers rush to add enough capacity. At the same time, some investors still worry about when that extra capacity arrives and how big the expansion will be.

For now, earnings estimates keep moving higher. Samsung is projected to make $151 billion in net income this year. SK Hynix is seen at $115 billion. Both figures are above TSMC’s projected $81 billion.

Crypto company stocks were mostly higher in the latest session. Strategy rose 9.35% to $179.30, Coinbase gained 5.37% to $206.48, and Robinhood added 2.03% to $88.19. PayPal edged up 0.64% to $51.20, while Block climbed 0.67% to $72.23.

Among the bigger movers, Circle jumped 8% to $103.70, IREN rose 7.73% to $48.66, and Bitmine Immersion Technologies gained 6.89% to $23.20. GameStop was up 4.21% at $25.49, while Galaxy Digital climbed 7.72% to $26.88.

Elsewhere, Figure Technology Solutions rose 2.36% to $35.83, Neptune Digital Assets gained 9.38% to $1.05, and TeraWulf added 4.17% to $20.59. Riot Platforms climbed 5.92% to $18.44, Bullish rose 2.3% to $42.90, and Cipher Digital gained 8.54% to $19.58.

The miners also pushed higher. Hut 8 rose 6.65% to $81.67, Core Scientific added 3.61% to $21.52, MARA Holdings gained 5.74% to $11.88, and CleanSpark climbed 6.6% to $12.27. Bitdeer Technologies Group rose 4.14% to $12.58, while Metaplanet gained 5.85% to $2.17.

A few other names also moved up. Rumble added 3.65% to $6.67, SharpLink rose 1.83% to $7.50, and American Bitcoin Corp jumped 11.69% to $1.39. Bit Digital gained 8.39% to $1.68, HIVE Digital Technologies rose 6.45% to $2.64, and Gemini Space Station added 5.11% to $4.73.

Lower down the list, Meliuz climbed 2.48% to $4.54, while Prenetics was barely changed, up 0.11% to $18.00. Exodus Movement rose 11.15% to $8.67, Canaan gained 5.37% to $0.56, and Kulr Technology Group added 5.62% to $2.73. Bitcoin Group SE rose 2.42% to $35.50, Fold Holdings gained 4.08% to $1.53, Sol Strategies climbed 10.4% to $1.38, and Greenidge Generation added 3.17% to $1.30.

Not every stock joined the move. MercadoLibre slipped 0.32% to $1,848.17, Net Holding A.S. fell 0.35% to $39.60, and Nexon dropped 0.81% to $17.11. Alliance Resource Partners eased 0.24% to $24.73, while Bitfarms fell 2.6% to $2.81.

The weaker names kept sliding further down the board. Intchains Group lost 4.35% to $1.32, Nano Labs dropped 5.35% to $2.30, Genius Group fell 3.89% to $0.31, and Argo Blockchain slipped 0.94% to $3.15.

A few names were flat on the day. Boyaa International was unchanged at $0.45. Semler Scientific, Twenty One, and ProCap BTC all showed 0% moves with listed prices at $0.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Wednesday that several oil-producing U.S. partners in the Persian Gulf have asked Washington for financial support as the war with Iran keeps shaking the region’s economy.

Scott said many Gulf allies want swap lines to help steady dollar funding markets and stop disorderly selling of U.S. assets. He said the support could come from either the Federal Reserve or the Treasury.

His comments went beyond what the White House had said a day earlier. On Tuesday, a White House official allegedly told CNBC that the United Arab Emirates had not formally asked for a currency swap line, though talks on the issue had taken place.

A swap line would give the UAE and other Gulf states access to U.S. dollar liquidity. But the idea carries political pressure at home as Americans deal with higher costs tied to the war, including prices for food, gas, and other daily essentials.

Scott also said the arrangement would help both the UAE and the United States. He added that other countries had also asked for similar support, including some U.S. allies in Asia, but he did not name them.

The strain on Gulf economies has grown as the conflict with Iran drags on. Tehran has launched missiles at U.S. military bases in the region, damaging economic infrastructure, while the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has cut into the oil income many Gulf countries rely on.