There is an 82% chance that an XRP ETF will be approved in 2025 – Polymarket data

Polymarket users predict an 82% chance that an XRP ETF will be approved in 2025. The chance had peaked at 89% when US President Trump entered the White House on January 20. However, this cooled down four days later.

Why? Interim US SEC chair Mark Uyeda and other commissioners had a closed meeting to discuss the future of the agency’s case against Ripple.

According to stats from the Polymarket website, the crypto community’s confidence in the approval of an XRP exchange-traded fund this year has increased by 19% in the last seven days. Moreover, 54% of the participants believe the SEC’s greenlight will occur as early as July 31.

XRP ETF filings on the rise

The heightened optimism follows Grayscale’s latest move to transform its XRP Trust into a fully-fledged ETF. The asset manager filed a 19b-4 application with the SEC on January 30, seeking to list the fund on NYSE Arca. 

According to the filing, Grayscale’s XRP Trust is one of the largest investment vehicles tied to Ripple’s native token, with more than $16 million in assets under management. Coinbase Custody Trust will be designated as the custodian for the proposed fund.

 On the other hand, BNY Mellon Asset Servicing will serve as the transfer agent.

Grayscale has argued that converting the trust into an ETF would offer investors a more regulated and accessible way to gain exposure to XRP. 

🚨9 $XRP ETFs AWAITING APPROVAL🚨

BULLISH 🤯🤯🤯 pic.twitter.com/U9TEMsIB2k

— TheXRPguy (@TheXRP_guy) January 21, 2025

The firm joins other investment companies, including CoinShares, WisdomTree, ProShares, REX Shares, and Bitwise, that had also submitted applications for an XRP ETF earlier on.

Ripple’s legal battle with the SEC still unresolved

Meanwhile, XRP’s future as an ETF asset could face market troubles due to Ripple’s case with the SEC. In late 2020, the regulator accused Ripple Labs and its executives of conducting an unregistered securities offering worth $1.3B.

The financial watchdog saw its case partially dismissed in 2023.  U.S. District Judge Analisa Torres ruled that XRP, when sold on secondary markets, did not qualify as a security against the SEC’s claims. 

Judge Torres found that Ripple’s programmatic sales of XRP to retail investors “lacked the characteristics” of an investment contract.

There is market speculation that the lawsuit has been quietly dismissed after references to the case were removed from Ripple’s litigation website. 

Attorney Jeremy Hogan clarifies that the lawsuit is still active. This is to mean that the removal did not indicate any formal agreement.

Sorry – clarification. It’s taken off the litigation section of SEC website only (there’s no "appeals" section). But when you look on the actual appellate court website, it’s still there and nothing new has been filed.

— Jeremy Hogan (@attorneyjeremy1) January 28, 2025

According to a Jan 24 post from defense lawyer James Filan, Ripple submitted a letter to the US Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit. The entity is requesting an April 16, 2025, deadline to submit their briefing for the SEC’s appeal. 

After experiencing a pullback in mid-January, the asset dipped into a support range between $2.52 and $2.68. Per TradingView technical analysis, the coin’s Fibonacci retracement level stands at $3.3418 level. 

If XRP breaks past the mark in the coming week, it could test the $3.84 all-time high price reached seven years ago, although it may struggle to breach $4 before mid-February.