US stocks notch new gains at the open as holiday lull looms and sentiment stays firm

JPMorgan is back on the December-cut train.

After briefly expecting a delay, Michael Feroli and his team at JPMorgan Chase now predict that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates next month, following new signals from top Fed officials, including John Williams, the president of the New York Fed.

Until now, JPM had penciled in a January move, especially after the delayed September jobs report raised some uncertainty. But that view has flipped.

In a note sent Wednesday, Michael said recent “Fedspeak” tipped the scales: “We now believe the latest round of Fedspeak tilts the odds toward the Committee deciding to cut rates in two weeks from today.”

The FOMC’s final meeting of the year is set for Dec. 9-10, and JPMorgan now forecasts two quarter-point cuts, one in December and one in January.

That aligns with the market’s expectations, as Fed funds futures now imply an 80% chance of a 25 basis point cut next week, a sharp jump from the sub-30% odds seen just last week.

Bitcoin’s latest drop is a psychology test. The world’s biggest crypto asset is down more than 20% this month, currently hovering near $89,800, and off nearly 30% from its early October high north of $126,000.

According to Compass Point analyst Ed Engel, the selloff is being driven by panic selling from newer investors, especially those who bought through U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Many of these investors came in above the $100K mark, and now, with losses piling up, they’re rushing to cash out.

At the same time, the market is also absorbing forced liquidations of leveraged crypto positions, as traders rotate into “risk-off” assets like gold amid uncertain macro data and valuation jitters in AI stocks.

There’s another pressure point too: the Bitcoin halving cycle. Every four years, block rewards are slashed in half, most recently scheduled for 2026, and while this is meant to make Bitcoin more scarce, it’s also stirred up controversial theories about predictable price cycles.

Some long-term holders are using this moment to trim positions, banking on those halving-driven peaks.

Compass Point says Bitcoin bounced off the $82K “True Market Mean”, a level that reflects the average cost basis for ETF investors this cycle.

But Engel warns that more pain might be needed to truly flush the market. He’s watching for signs like net accumulation by long-term holders, and negative perpetual funding rates that signal overleveraged longs have been wiped out.

“BTC bear markets typically end after wealth transfers to stickier holders,” Ed wrote, adding that until then, Bitcoin might keep grinding lower into year-end.

The bond market stayed calm on Wednesday, even as traders juggled fresh economic data and chatter around who might run the Federal Reserve next.

The 10-year Treasury yield barely budged, holding at 4.002%, while the 30-year yield ticked down slightly to 4.649%.

On the short end, the 2-year yield rose a bit to 3.487%, suggesting some stickiness in near-term rate expectations. Yields move inversely to prices, and one basis point equals 0.01%.

Meanwhile, a surprisingly low jobless claims number added a wrinkle. The Labor Department said just 216,000 Americans filed for unemployment in the week ended November 22, the lowest reading since April, and well below the 225,000 forecast from economists surveyed by Dow Jones.

That’s the kind of data that makes it harder for the Fed to pivot too soon, despite the surge in rate cut bets this week.

But the real suspense on Wall Street is also about personnel. Scott Bessent, the Treasury Secretary, told CNBC on Tuesday that Donald Trump is “very close” to naming a new Fed chair, with just one interview left.

Scott added, “It’s his prerogative whether it’s before the Christmas holidays or in the new year,” but stressed that “things are moving along very well.”

Oracle lit up the tape on Wednesday, surging over 4% after Brad Zelnick at Deutsche Bank doubled down on his bullish call, and made it loud.

Brad told clients he’s sticking with his Buy rating and $375 price target, which implies a massive +90% upside from today’s levels. That’s well above the $345 average among other analysts polled by LSEG.

Brad isn’t ignoring the risks, though. He acknowledged that Oracle’s current 27x multiple on 2026 EPS is weighed down by the upfront costs of building out its AI cloud infrastructure, which he said has kept investors cautious. But that’s exactly where he sees the disconnect.

In his words, “the very real opportunity” comes from Oracle’s OpenAI backlog, which he described as strong ROI, already advancing as planned, and clear validation of Oracle’s position in AI infrastructure at scale.

And with the stock recently pulling back, Brad sees this as a gift. He called the risk-reward “strongly skewed to the upside,” especially when viewing Oracle’s business in full.

Bitcoin clawed its way back above $90,000 on Wednesday, shaking off its sharp October crash, but this comeback is looking nothing like the old-school crypto rollercoaster.

Instead of wild swings and retail frenzy, the latest move reflects Wall Street’s tightening grip on how risk flows through the system.

Even after that 36% plunge since October’s record high, implied volatility has barely moved, signaling just how much the institutionalization of crypto has changed the game.

Back in 2021, Bitcoin’s drops were violent and disorderly. It took more than a year to bottom, and another 15 months to reclaim its peak. This time, the pullback has been sharp but orderly.

Lower volatility readings suggest that traders aren’t paying up to hedge anymore, a sign that price expectations are stabilizing, even in the face of heavy losses.

Macro’s playing a huge role. As Fed cut odds surge over 80% for December, up from 42% just last week, Bitcoin, like other risk assets, is catching a break.

But the damage in October was real. This was Bitcoin’s worst month since the 2022 collapse, and the sharpest post-ETF drop yet. Investors yanked out nearly $3.6 billion from the 12 U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, the heaviest monthly outflow since their debut.

And yet? Those same ETFs might be dampening chaos. They now account for more than $40 billion in open interest, with options volume doubling from a year ago, no longer just the playground of offshore leverage junkies.

While markets drifted higher into the Thanksgiving break, Dubravko Lakos-Bujas at JPMorgan was busy looking beyond the turkey and stuffing, straight into 2026.

Dubravko just slapped a 7,500 target on the S&P 500 for the end of that year.

That’s a 10.9% jump from where things closed Tuesday, driven by what he sees as a recipe of double-digit earnings, two more Fed cuts, and then, in his words, an “extended pause.”

But that’s just the base case. Dubravko said that if the Fed loosens policy more than expected, the S&P 500 could push past 8,000, which is an 18% gain from today’s levels.

He thinks markets are already sniffing this out, writing that despite all the AI valuation hand-wringing lately, these multiples are “correctly anticipating above-trend earnings growth,” especially with an AI capex boom and easier fiscal policy on deck.

Rate-cut expectations have surged this week, especially after a batch of soft U.S. data. The CME’s FedWatch tool now shows traders pricing in an 80%+ chance of a 25 basis point cut in December.

As for what to buy, JPMorgan’s new AI/datacenter beneficiaries basket includes Amazon, Nvidia, and Alphabet.

So far in 2025, Amazon’s been sluggish, just a 4.7% gain, while Nvidia’s soared 32%, even after shedding over 12% in November. Alphabet? It’s on fire, up 70% in 2025, and nearly doubled in just six months.

Stocks pushed higher again on Wednesday, locking in a fourth straight day of gains as Wall Street drifted into holiday mode with a rare dose of calm.

The Dow jumped 363 points, or 0.8%, while the S&P 500 rose 0.8% and the Nasdaq climbed 0.9%, putting all three indexes on track for their strongest weekly performance in months.

Oracle was the standout, soaring more than 4% after Deutsche Bank doubled down on its bullish view. That call helped revive enthusiasm around AI stocks, with Nvidia rebounding nearly 2% and Microsoft popping more than 2% in early trade.

At this point in the week, the S&P 500 is up over 3%, the Dow has climbed almost 3%, and the Nasdaq has gained more than 4%, pacing for its best showing since mid-May.