US job growth barely improved in September, with joblessness still hovering close to its highest point since 2021. Unemployment rate is still at 4.3% and according to a Bloomberg survey, only about 50,000 job positions were added in September 2025.
US lawmakers are still under pressure to pass the spending bill or risk causing a federal shutdown. However, a shutdown could delay Friday’s report, giving a fresh read on whether demand for workers is holding steady enough to keep unemployment from rising further.
Companies have reduced the number of new employees over tariffs.
The Fed delivered its first rate cut of 2025 this month to address signs of job market strain. Markets are also expecting another reduction after the October 29 meeting.
Lately, companies have been pulling back on hiring to balance out costs such as import duties. Tuesday’s government figures are expected to confirm that August job vacancies fell close to their lowest since 2021. Traders will also watch for the Institute for Supply Management’s September readings on factory and services sectors next week.
In the meantime, investors are monitoring any last-minute developments before a possible federal shutdown and its potential fallout.
North of the border, the Bank of Canada will share a summary of the talks behind its recent rate cut and may signal whether another cut is likely next month. Markets will also track inflation trends in the euro area and Switzerland, several central bank speeches, and India’s possible policy easing.
India’s central bank is projected to resume easing this week, likely cutting its repo rate to 5.25% on Wednesday following the Fed’s move. Meanwhile, BOJ Governor Ueda headlines a busy week of speeches in Japan, speaking Friday after the latest Tankan business survey.
European countries are also waiting for the release of major economic data
The euro area will deliver a flurry of data, starting with Spain’s inflation numbers on Monday and major economies on Tuesday, before the region-wide figure on Wednesday, forecast at 2.2%.
More than half of the ECB’s Governing Council will hit the speaking circuit this week, including multiple appearances from some policymakers.
Britain’s focus this week will also center on Labour’s party conference, with Chancellor Reeves speaking on Monday and Starmer on Tuesday as markets gauge the government’s direction.
Key UK data this week includes Tuesday’s quarterly national accounts, Wednesday’s BOE Decision Maker Panel survey, and multiple BOE officials’ speeches.
In Switzerland, highlights include Monday’s growth revisions, Tuesday’s FX intervention data, Wednesday’s PMI, and Thursday’s CPI, which is expected to rise to 0.3%, the fastest since March.
On Monday, Sweden’s Riksbank will also release minutes from its recent rate-cut decision, reiterating its view that no more cuts are planned until at least 2028. Turkey reports September inflation on Friday, with monthly prices likely rising faster but the yearly rate easing to 32.5%.
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Tom Barkin said that although inflation and unemployment have shifted slightly, the risk of them worsening significantly is low.
In a Bloomberg Television interview, Barkin noted the slight deviations in unemployment and inflation but stressed that the Fed is committed to stabilizing prices while supporting maximum employment.
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Tom Barkin said that while inflation and unemployment have shifted slightly, the risk of a significant worsening is low. In a Bloomberg Television interview, Barkin emphasized the Fed’s commitment to stabilizing prices while supporting maximum employment.
Barkin noted, “We’re very much focused on trying to land the plane here and balancing inflation and unemployment. Both of them have ticked in the wrong direction — but on the other hand, the downside is limited, and we’re just going to have to adjust our stance as we learn more.”
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