President Donald Trump, speaking aboard Air Force One on Sunday, said tariffs will make the United States richer than ever before, dismissing economic concerns and doubling down on his aggressive trade policies.
He told Fox News that the country will take in “hundreds of millions of dollars” and reach a point where Americans “won’t know where to spend all that money.”
Trump made these comments during a brief interview with Maria Bartiromo on Fox News’ Sunday Morning Futures, where he also waved off concerns about a potential recession.
“I’ll tell you what, of course, you hesitate,” he said when asked whether he was worried about an economic downfall. “All I know is this—we’re going to become so rich.”
Meanwhile, hours after Trump’s interview aired, Dow Jones futures dropped nearly 500 points, a 1.2% loss. S&P 500 futures fell 1.4%, while Nasdaq 100 futures tumbled 1.6%.
Last week was already rough for the markets. The S&P 500 had its worst week since September, dropping by 3.1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.37%, and the Nasdaq Composite slid by 3.45%.
Trump’s 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico have been nothing short of chaotic. They were initially paused for a month, then reinstated last Tuesday, only to be partially reversed on Wednesday, before being delayed again on Thursday. This unpredictable back-and-forth approach has left businesses and investors scrambling.
Wall Street and economists warn of recession risks
While Trump insists that tariffs will make the U.S. wealthy, economists and financial analysts aren’t as convinced. Byron Anderson, head of fixed income at Laffer Tengler Investments, wrote that continued economic instability under Trump increases the likelihood of a downturn. “The longer we have chaos and turmoil from Trump, the higher the probability that we will eventually have data trend negative,” he said.
The Federal Reserve is also closely watching the situation. Chairman Jerome Powell, speaking at the U.S. Monetary Policy Forum, said the Fed is “well positioned to wait for greater clarity” as Trump’s administration implements “significant policy changes” in trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation. He added that uncertainty remains high, and the central bank is focused on “separating the signal from the noise.”
Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank, told CNBC that while a recession isn’t certain yet, Trump’s unpredictable behavior is making things worse. “The U.S. economy is resilient, I would say, largely despite Donald Trump,” he said. “His zigzagging on tariffs shows that he has little idea of the potential consequences of his policies.”
New data will test Trump’s trade strategy
The upcoming week is packed with economic reports that could either support or contradict Trump’s confidence in tariffs. The New York Fed will release a survey on consumer expectations, and on Wednesday, the government will publish February’s Consumer Price Index. Thursday will bring fresh producer price data, and Friday will feature the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment report.
Economic signals are already flashing warning signs. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow tracker predicts a 2.4% contraction in U.S. GDP for the first quarter of the year. If that number holds, and the following quarter also shows negative growth, the U.S. will officially be in a recession.
The labor market is also showing cracks. February’s nonfarm payrolls report showed 151,000 new jobs, missing expectations and failing to keep up with previous months. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1%, adding to concerns that the economy could be slowing down.
Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, believes Trump’s policies could push the economy in multiple directions. “The sum of Trump’s actions can yet skew the economy in any which way, including an implosion of capital spending,” he wrote.
JPMorgan analysts warn of continued volatility
While Trump continues to push his tariff policy, major financial institutions are not on board. Analysts at JPMorgan’s U.S. Market Intelligence unit have warned that the U.S. economy is entering “another period of uncertainty” due to Trump’s unpredictable trade war.
“We have already seen the negative impact that policy/trade uncertainty has had on both household and corporate spending,” JPMorgan analysts said. “It seems likely that we see a larger magnitude of this over the next month.”
They also pointed out that a rapidly rising unemployment rate could push the stock market into what they call a “Recession Playbook.” While a U.S. recession is not their base-case scenario, they warned that the “undetermined length of tariffs” and the possibility of an accelerated trade war could further weaken the economy.
JPMorgan analysts now hold a bearish stance on U.S. stocks, expecting more volatility. “Given the lack of a potential end to this escalation, the expectation is that tariffs of this magnitude will drive both Canada and Mexico into a recession,” they wrote.
“Look for U.S. GDP growth expectations to crater and for earnings revisions to be materially lower, forcing a re-think of year-end forecasts.”
Despite the warnings from analysts, economists, and investors, Trump remains firm in his belief that tariffs will bring unprecedented wealth to the country. “We’re taking in so much money,” he said during his Fox News interview. “You’re not going to believe it.”
The White House did not respond to requests for comment on Trump’s latest remarks or the ongoing confusion surrounding his tariff policies.
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