Tesla and Nvidia, two major names in American technology, may soon lose ground to China in the race to develop humanoid robots. Both Tesla and Boston Dynamics have already raised the alarm to U.S. lawmakers.
In recent months, investors have shown growing excitement around these robots after high-profile mentions by executives such as Jensen Huang of Nvidia.
Earlier this month, Huang drew attention to what he called “the age of generalist robotics” when he presented a new set of technologies meant for building humanoid robots.
In terms of manufacturing the robots themselves, Tesla’s Optimus project seems to be leading in the United States. Elon Musk has outlined plans to produce about 5,000 Optimus units this year. Though his high goals might give him an advantage over American rivals like Apptronik and Boston Dynamics, neither of which has reached mass production, Musk is expected to face tough competition from Chinese firms.
China is going all into the AI humanoid race
A Chinese robotics company in Shanghai, Agibot (Zhiyuan Robotics), has matched Tesla’s aim by setting its own plan to make 5,000 humanoid robots. Analysts also note that Chinese electric carmakers, such as BYD, are growing faster than Tesla and are offering lower prices. Some experts predict a similar pattern may play out in humanoid robotics.
Reyk Knuhtsen, an analyst at SemiAnalysis, said, “China has the potential to replicate its disruptive impact from the EV industry in the humanoid space. However, this time the disruption could extend far beyond a single industry, potentially transforming the labor force itself.”
A February research study by Morgan Stanley said that building costs for one humanoid robot right now could range from $10,000 to $300,000 per unit, depending on the design and the intended use. But Chinese firms might already be offering lower prices.
Better economies of scale and more advanced manufacturing processes in China give those companies a pricing edge. This view is supported by recent developments at Unitree, which came out with its G1 humanoid robot in May for $16,000 and, for a short time, made it available online for Chinese buyers.
By contrast, Morgan Stanley estimates that the selling cost of Tesla’s Optimus Gen2 might be around $20,000, and that would only be possible if Tesla could ramp up production, speed up its research efforts, and rely on affordable components from China.
Morgan Stanley’s February report revealed that China leads the world in recent patent filings mentioning the word “humanoid,” with 5,688 patents in the past five years, compared with 1,483 from the United States.
Large Chinese companies such as Xiaomi and major electric vehicle manufacturers—BYD, Chery, and Xpeng among them—are also venturing into humanoid robotics. According to the same research, China’s startups in this field benefit from a strong supply chain, vast local markets, and policy support at various levels of government.
For China, humanoid robots also offer a potential solution to an upcoming decline in labor availability. According to Ming Hsun Lee from BofA Global Research, these machines could help fill production line roles over the next three to four years. Over time, they could move into the service sector.
Musk has predicted he might have 1,000 or more Optimus robots working in Tesla’s own operations by 2025, but Chinese state media reports that EV brands such as BYD and Geely are already putting some of Unitree’s humanoid machines to use in their factories.
Lee also believes the cost of essential robot components will decrease “very fast” as more companies embrace them and as economies of scale increase.
SemiAnalysis has reported that the Unitree G1, described as “the only viable humanoid robot on the market,” does not depend on parts from American suppliers. This creates more urgency in Washington, as some observers fear that the U.S. is losing ground on both the manufacturing and design fronts.
SemiAnalysis has warned that China may be the sole beneficiary of the economic gains from advanced robotics systems, including humanoid robots. “This poses an existential threat to the US as it is outcompeted in all capacities,” the group stated.
Knuhtsen from SemiAnalysis said that if American companies want to stay relevant, they should consider moving production back to the U.S. or to allied nations.
“To catch up, U.S. players must rapidly mobilize a strong manufacturing and industrial base, whether domestically or through allied nations,” he said. “For Tesla and similar firms, it may be wise to begin reshoring or ‘friendshoring’ their component sourcing and manufacturing to reduce reliance on China.”
Tesla and Boston Dynamics have raised the alarm to U.S. lawmakers already
American robotics firms, including Tesla, Boston Dynamics, and others, have raised alarms that the U.S. might lose not just the robotics race, but also the emerging AI race if the government does not adopt a clear strategy.
Representatives of these companies met with U.S. lawmakers on Capitol Hill earlier this week, pushing for the creation of a federal office devoted to supporting the domestic robotics industry.
Their message was urgent: China already treats intelligent robots as a national priority, and the U.S. risks lagging behind unless it takes strong steps to boost research and business development.
Jeff Cardenas, who co-founded the Austin-based humanoid robot startup Apptronik, pointed out that an American carmaker—General Motors—was first to install an industrial robot in a New Jersey plant in 1961. But that early lead gave way to Japan, which remains a central force in robotics, along with Europe. For Cardenas, the next wave of robotics will rely even more on AI, and countries that embrace a clear plan will have a better chance of leading it.
“I think the U.S. has a great chance of winning. We’re leading in AI, and I think we’re building some of the best robots in the world. But we need a national strategy if we’re going to continue to build and stay ahead,” Cardenas told reporters after a private meeting with legislators.
The Association for Advanced Automation added its voice, arguing that a national plan would support the scaling of U.S. firms and the introduction of robots as the “physical manifestation” of AI. The association pointed out that China and other countries already have clear robotics strategies in place. “Without that leadership, the U.S. will not only lose the robotics race but also the AI race,” the group said in a statement.
Besides a plan, the group suggests tax breaks to spark demand for American robots, public funding for research and business-focused projects, and training programs for a new generation of specialists. A federal robotics office, the association claims, is necessary to match the “increasing global competition in the space” and the “growing sophistication” of modern robotics.
Representative Raja Krishnamoorthi, a Democrat from Illinois, said he believes the U.S. still leads for now but acknowledged that China’s firms are “very good” and benefit from ample resources.
“So we need to maintain our innovation and maintain our culture of entrepreneurship,” he said. That view is widely shared among the American executives who spoke with members of Congress, including Jonathan Chen, a Tesla manager for Optimus Engineering.
Chen said that even if the U.S. starts building better robots, success depends on achieving large-scale production. “You create the robots, the question is who’s going to scale them?” he said.
When it comes to actual usage, China remains the biggest market on Earth for industrial robots, with about 1.8 million of them in place in 2023, according to the Germany-based International Federation of Robotics.
Japan and Europe still control a large share of the global factory robot market, although the IFR estimates that Chinese makers account for about half of China’s domestic robot installations. Tracking new forms of robotics—like two-legged machines—can be harder, since they are just now transitioning from research labs into actual workplaces.
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